Written answers

Tuesday, 17 February 2004

Department of An Taoiseach

Age Dependency Ratio

10:00 pm

John Bruton (Meath, Fine Gael)
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Question 180: To ask the Taoiseach the age dependency ratio (details supplied) here in 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000; his projection for 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050; and if he will give details of the definitions used in these calculations. [4377/04]

Photo of Mary HanafinMary Hanafin (Dún Laoghaire, Fianna Fail)
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The information requested by the Deputy is contained in the following table:

Actual and Projected Old Age Dependency Ratio
Year Old age dependency Ratio (M1F2)
Actual 1961 19.4
1971 19.2
1981 18.2
1991 18.5
2001 16.6
Projected 2011 17.9
2021 23.1
2031 29.1
2041 37.1
2051 46.5

Notes:

Years ending in "1" have been selected as they coincide with years in which a census was taken up to 1991.

The old age dependency ratio is the ratio of the number of persons aged over 65 years to those aged 15-64.

The projections for 2011 onwards are based on the M1F2 scenario. The M1 migration assumption envisages net inward migration declining from 15,000 per annum during the 2001 to 2006 period to 5,000 per annum during the 2011 to 2051 period. The F2 assumption envisages the total fertility rate declining to 1.75 by 2011 and remaining constant thereafter.

The projections use the 1996 census results as the baseline. The 2002 based projections are due for publication in mid-year. Use of the 1996 baseline instead of that for 2002 is not likely to have any major impact on the magnitude of the projected old age dependency ratio.

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