Jerry Buttimer (Fine Gael)
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I thank the Minister of State, Deputy Calleary, for facilitating that sos.

Malcolm Byrne (Fianna Fail)
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Cuirim fáilte roimh an Aire Stáit. I thank the Minister of State for taking this matter. Given the rapid growth in population in Ireland, one of our key requirements is to ensure that we have an adequate number of school places at primary and second levels. I am aware that there is a forward-planning unit within the Department. My question is to look at how that unit operates, particularly in terms of looking at areas where there will be high population growth over the coming period. I am specifically asking to look at where the Department sees the need for school places between now and 2030 and the criteria it will use in that regard. I have a specific interest in north Wexford and south Wicklow, which are areas of high growth. For instance, in the intercensal period between 2016 and 2022, the Gorey local electoral area had population growth of 14%, in comparison with the national average of 8%. In the case of Arklow, where the Government has now delivered on the wastewater treatment plant, which will allow for the expansion of the Arklow area, rapid growth in terms of housing and, consequently, population will be seen over the coming years.

As regards my experience with the Department, in the late noughties I was involved with a campaign - I did not run it - involving Gorey Community School, the largest second level school in the country, which was overcrowded. That led to the creation of Creagh College, which ultimately became a 1,000-pupil school. It was sanctioned by the then Minister, Batt O'Keeffe. I was predicting, however, that by 2015 we would need another school. The Department said, "No, no, you are wrong. We have already provided it." Looking at census statistics and figures on the ground, however, we saw that it was the case, and four years ago, the Minister, Deputy Foley, did sanction an extra second level school, Gorey Educate Together Secondary School.

All three second level schools in Gorey are doing well, but I have no doubt, given projected population growth and the fact that in the Gorey area alone, between houses under construction, those with planning permission and those where developers have long-term plans, there are 3,000 homes in the pipeline. My argument is that even if only half those are built, and on the basis of one child in each of those homes, that will result in a very big demand for both primary school places and second level places. There is very clearly within Gorey town already a demand either for a significant expansion of the existing primary schools or that we look at a sixth national school.

In the case of Arklow, I have raised regularly with the Minister, Deputy Foley, the long-running case of a new site for the Gaelscoil and Gaelcholáiste. I hope that impasse is resolved soon. These are excellent schools but they need a new site. I am looking in particular to the likely growth that will happen in the town now as a result of the planned expansion. I use that only as an example, but we have seen rapid growth in our population over recent years. The Department, I think, at times takes the view that this will plateau. It does not. It may in certain parts of the country, but in other areas - and I am talking in particular about the greater commuter belt around Dublin - we continue to experience rapid growth.

What I want to know, therefore, is what level of planning the Department has in place and where it sees the growth happening between now and 2030.

Dara Calleary (Mayo, Fianna Fail)
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Gabhaim buíochas leis an Seanadóir as ucht an issue seo a chur os ár gcomhair.

As the Senator knows, in order to plan for school provision and to analyse the relevant demographic data, the Department of Education divides the country into 314 school planning areas.It uses a geographic information system which facilitates the analysis of data from a range of sources, including CSO census data, child benefit and school enrolment data, to identify where the pressure for school places across the country will arise and where additional school accommodation is needed at primary and post-primary level.

As part of the demographic demand analysis, the Department also factors in planning and construction activity in the residential sector. This involves the analysis of data sources from local authorities and the CSO, along with engagement with local authorities. This ensures that schools infrastructure planning is keeping pace with demographic changes at local level, where the picture can quickly evolve due to planned new residential development.

The 2023 demographic exercise indicates that 79% of the 314 school planning areas at primary level show static or decreasing enrolments for the period to 2027 compared with 2022. At post-primary level, some 78% of school planning areas are anticipated to have increased enrolments for the period to 2030, with most expected to reach a peak within the next two or three years.

The Department also conducts granular analysis below the level of a school planning area, particularly where a school planning area encompasses both high-growth urban settlement areas and a more rural hinterland, which might be similar to Gorey and Arklow. The analysis of school place demand in urban areas experiencing high population growth has indicated that demand in the urban area can be 10% to 20% higher than the school planning area as a whole.

To ensure alignment of school provision with roll-out of additional residential development, the Department liaises with all 31 local authorities in respect of the county development plans and any associated local area plans with a view to identifying any potential long-term school accommodation requirements across school planning areas. The Department engages with all consultation phases of these plans to ensure that there is an adequate amount of appropriately zoned and suitably located sites for future school place provision and that they are in line with objectives as identified in the national planning framework. Department officials made 61 submissions in respect of county development plans and local area plans in 2023. In addition the Department is awaiting updated regional population projections data from the national planning framework review; this will future inform future school place requirements.

In the context of Gorey and Arklow, the towns referenced by the Senator, there are a number of live school capital projects which will provide additional capacity that will assist in meeting the future demand for school places.

Malcolm Byrne (Fianna Fail)
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I thank the Minister of State. I am always heartened when I hear that the Department is having regard to local area plans and national plans. As he is well aware, however, just because the Office of the Planning Regulator and the national planning framework state that a particular location is where population growth will happen does not mean that is always the case. I want to avoid a situation whereby communities must actively campaign in the context of overcrowded schools or circumstances where children cannot get school places. There should always be a guarantee that a child will be able to attain a school place within their local community. There is a big concern in what we might call the greater Dublin commuter belt that this is not happening. My concerns relate specifically to Gorey, where the Department is constantly playing catch-up. We must have regard to circumstances on the ground.

Dara Calleary (Mayo, Fianna Fail)
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I meant to state at the outset that I am taking this on behalf of the Minister, Deputy Foley, who has been very focused on school building. There has been record school capital investment during her tenure. There has been engagement by the Department in respect of county development plans and local area plans and, more specifically in the context of Gorey and Arklow, with plans below these at a granular level that have a focus on rapidly growing towns that have rural hinterlands and finding solutions for the challenges they face. I have no doubt that the Minister will continue to engage with the Senator on his representations in relation to Gorey and Arklow.