Seanad debates
Thursday, 15 February 2024
Nithe i dtosach suíonna - Commencement Matters
Climate Change Policy
9:30 am
Malcolm Byrne (Fianna Fail)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source
I thank the Minister of State for taking this Commencement matter on behalf of the Minister for the Environment, Climate and Communications, Deputy Ryan. When the Minister of State and I were in school, we learned all about the Gulf Stream and the importance of the flows in the Atlantic. I am very alarmed by recent reports from Utrecht University on one of the longest studies of the impact of climate change on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation current and the fear that it is going to collapse. The worry is not that it is going to collapse in the next three to five years but that it could collapse some time in the next century. This requires a global response in terms of measures to address climate change but it is also critical for this State to start to prepare for the possibility of something like this happening. The reality is that if this current collapses, we are going to see temperatures in Ireland dropping. Various scientists have come up with different figures but we could find that Ireland is five, ten or even 15 degrees colder. This would certainly have very serious and significant impacts on agriculture and food production, and if we see sea levels rise by up to a metre, that will be very significant for our coastal communities in particular.
I want to know that the State is preparing for this possibility and that it is something we are thinking about. We know that, because of global warming, a lot of the ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctic are melting and this is having a profound effect on the oceans. It is reducing the salinity and density of surface water in the North Atlantic and that will have serious implications for Ireland. I appreciate this may not be something that will happen in our lifetime but it is something we need to think about. In the context of potentially dramatic change, we need to think about the Irish climate suddenly becoming very like the Icelandic climate. When we start to think about the implications of that, we realise they are profound. This could be really transformative and, as a State, we have to do everything we can to try to combat it. At the same time, we also need to make sure we are prepared for this if it does happen. Ireland is one of the most vulnerable countries, given our location, if something like this happens. I raise this issue today on foot of the recently published study by Utrecht University to determine whether there is any level of preparedness on the part of State for the possibility of this happening.
Kieran O'Donnell (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source
I am taking this important matter on behalf of the Minister, Deputy Ryan, and I thank Senator Byrne for raising it. This Government takes the issue of climate change very seriously and has put in place a number of initiatives to address the changes that we, as a nation, need to make to address the climate crisis. These include amendments made in 2021 to the climate Act, the requirement for an annually updated climate action plan with sectoral emissions ceilings, and the publication of the national energy and climate plan. However, due to the locked-in effect of past emissions, Ireland will face substantial risks from climate change, including increased precipitation, floods, droughts and the potential collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. We need to prepare for these impacts to ensure our society, economy and infrastructure are climate resilient.
The current national adaptation framework, NAF, was published in 2018 under the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2015, as amended in 2021. It noted the risks inherent in a potential collapse of Atlantic thermohaline circulation, THC, but estimated that the probability of collapse of this circulation is low, even for high temperatures. However, it also noted that changes in the intensity of the THC may have a significant impact regionally without actually crossing the tipping point for collapse.
The 2018 NAF outlines a whole-of-government-and-society approach to climate adaptation in Ireland and aims to improve the enabling environment for adaptation through ongoing engagement with key sectors along with civil society, the private sector and the research community. In line with international best practice, adaptation actions are mainstreamed into appropriate sectors. Six Departments are leading the implementation of 12 sectoral adaptation plans made under the NAF in the areas of agriculture, forestry, seafood, biodiversity, electricity and gas networks, communication networks, flood risk management, water quality and water service infrastructure, health, built and archaeological heritage, and transport infrastructure. The NAF underwent a statutory review in 2022 and the Minister published the report of that review. The principal recommendation was that a new draft NAF should be developed and this new draft was published, following public consultation, on 19 January 2024. The draft takes note of adaptation developments at international and EU levels since 2018, work done under local authority adaptation strategies, as well as sectoral adaptation progress and research. The new draft NAF, which provides the principal frame for sectoral and local adaptation responses, has a medium degree of confidence that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will not collapse abruptly before 2100. However, it notes that should this occur, it would very likely lead to abrupt shifts in regional weather patterns and would have a significant impact on human and natural ecosystems, which is the core point made by Senator Byrne.
Ireland has commenced work on the first climate change risk assessment. This project is being led by the Environmental Protection Agency and is scheduled for completion in early 2025. The project will examine all of the risks. Public consultation on the NAF will close on 19 February. Issues raised in submissions made to the consultation will be considered for inclusion in the final draft of the NAF, which the Minister will submit to Government for approval. Subject to Government approval, a new iteration of sectoral adaptation plans will be commenced for completion in 2025. These new plans will incorporate the principles in the NAF. Revised guidance for sectors is being developed to assist them in that goal.
Climate change mitigation aimed at reducing and stabilising greenhouse gas emissions is the most effective strategy for preventing the crossing of critical environmental tipping points. Reliance solely on adaptation may prove insufficient in averting irreversible ecological consequences. The implementation of Ireland's NAF, sectoral adaptation plans, climate action plans and local authority climate action plans is key to achieving a climate resilient Ireland.
Malcolm Byrne (Fianna Fail)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source
I thank the Minister of State for his response and I am glad the Government is looking at the potential impact across a range of sectors. As he said, this may not happen this century but there is a real risk of it happening. We are already seeing a lot of strange weather events as a result of climate change.I would be concerned if Government policy is that it will put Noah's Ark on top of the Sugarloaf or whatever, and that this could be the approach, but I am happy that in order to try to address some of the concerns, it is being dealt with right across all these sectors.
It is also critical there is a whole-of-government approach to raising concerns around the potential impact of this kind of event. As I said, it is to be hoped nobody in the House will see it. However, there is a real fear for future generations that if the AMOC collapses, it will have, as the Minister of State outlined and I talked about, profound implications for Ireland, probably much more than any other single event we could see in the next century. That is why it is critical that we look to combat it but are prepared if it happens. The evidence and research show that the AMOC has weakened by approximately 15% since 1950. If that continues, the reality is, while we might not see it, at some stage in the future there will be a real danger it will collapse.
Eugene Murphy (Fianna Fail)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source
I think I know at last what meridional means. Does the Minister of State have a final comment?
Kieran O'Donnell (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source
Senator Byrne made very cogent points. There is a whole-of-government approach to this issue. Changes to the climate system as a result of human activity have already resulted in an observed global average temperature increase of more than 1°C since pre-industrial times. That goes without saying. Further increases in global average temperatures are projected to cause significant impacts in Ireland and globally, especially in countries more exposed and less able than we are to withstand these impacts. The Government is committed to addressing this crisis by reducing our national carbon emissions to achieve our climate goal and by responding coherently to climate risks.
In line with Article 4 of the Paris Agreement and Article 15 of the EU regulation on the governance of the energy union and climate action, Ireland has set out a strategy to reach our 2050 climate action targets and has specified sector-specific pathways to reach these targets. A substantial increase in climate ambition was set out in the 2020 programme for Government, Our Shared Future, including new legislation providing for a 51% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and to achieve climate neutrality by no later than the end of 2050. It also set out a wide range of policies to achieve this target and affirmed the Government’s commitment to place social justice at the heart of the transition to a low-carbon economy.
Adaptation, as part of this transition, is not achieved by a one-time response to the impacts of climate change. Adaptation is an ongoing process that must evolve to meet climate challenges as our knowledge increases. The new draft national adaptation framework, when finalised following the current public consultation, will set out the coherent principles, strategy and governance for moving to a climate-resilient Ireland over the next five years.