Kieran O'Donnell (Limerick City, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

I am taking this important matter on behalf of the Minister, Deputy Ryan, and I thank Senator Byrne for raising it. This Government takes the issue of climate change very seriously and has put in place a number of initiatives to address the changes that we, as a nation, need to make to address the climate crisis. These include amendments made in 2021 to the climate Act, the requirement for an annually updated climate action plan with sectoral emissions ceilings, and the publication of the national energy and climate plan. However, due to the locked-in effect of past emissions, Ireland will face substantial risks from climate change, including increased precipitation, floods, droughts and the potential collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. We need to prepare for these impacts to ensure our society, economy and infrastructure are climate resilient.

The current national adaptation framework, NAF, was published in 2018 under the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2015, as amended in 2021. It noted the risks inherent in a potential collapse of Atlantic thermohaline circulation, THC, but estimated that the probability of collapse of this circulation is low, even for high temperatures. However, it also noted that changes in the intensity of the THC may have a significant impact regionally without actually crossing the tipping point for collapse.

The 2018 NAF outlines a whole-of-government-and-society approach to climate adaptation in Ireland and aims to improve the enabling environment for adaptation through ongoing engagement with key sectors along with civil society, the private sector and the research community. In line with international best practice, adaptation actions are mainstreamed into appropriate sectors. Six Departments are leading the implementation of 12 sectoral adaptation plans made under the NAF in the areas of agriculture, forestry, seafood, biodiversity, electricity and gas networks, communication networks, flood risk management, water quality and water service infrastructure, health, built and archaeological heritage, and transport infrastructure. The NAF underwent a statutory review in 2022 and the Minister published the report of that review. The principal recommendation was that a new draft NAF should be developed and this new draft was published, following public consultation, on 19 January 2024. The draft takes note of adaptation developments at international and EU levels since 2018, work done under local authority adaptation strategies, as well as sectoral adaptation progress and research. The new draft NAF, which provides the principal frame for sectoral and local adaptation responses, has a medium degree of confidence that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will not collapse abruptly before 2100. However, it notes that should this occur, it would very likely lead to abrupt shifts in regional weather patterns and would have a significant impact on human and natural ecosystems, which is the core point made by Senator Byrne.

Ireland has commenced work on the first climate change risk assessment. This project is being led by the Environmental Protection Agency and is scheduled for completion in early 2025. The project will examine all of the risks. Public consultation on the NAF will close on 19 February. Issues raised in submissions made to the consultation will be considered for inclusion in the final draft of the NAF, which the Minister will submit to Government for approval. Subject to Government approval, a new iteration of sectoral adaptation plans will be commenced for completion in 2025. These new plans will incorporate the principles in the NAF. Revised guidance for sectors is being developed to assist them in that goal.

Climate change mitigation aimed at reducing and stabilising greenhouse gas emissions is the most effective strategy for preventing the crossing of critical environmental tipping points. Reliance solely on adaptation may prove insufficient in averting irreversible ecological consequences. The implementation of Ireland's NAF, sectoral adaptation plans, climate action plans and local authority climate action plans is key to achieving a climate resilient Ireland.