Michael McDowell (Independent)

I welcome the opportunity to speak on this subject and welcome the tone in which this debate has been carried on so far. It seems to me that, although I admired him greatly, Seamus Mallon was incorrect in one matter, and I am glad the Minister of State has stated that. I refer to this notion that somehow it would be better had the Good Friday Agreement stipulated something more than 51-49 and given more of a comfort cushion to unionism and that somehow this would have been more conducive to better relations in Northern Ireland. Let us just remind ourselves of one fact: there would have been no Good Friday Agreement if it was not 51-49.

Those who call for an early referendum on Northern Ireland should understand some basic rules of politics. One of those rules is that in order to get a referendum passed, 51% of the people have to look at what is on offer and say that is better than where they are at the moment. If you ignore that, you are going to lose. All our experience in this State in referendums has always been that it is very easy to oppose a referendum. It is very easy to work on people’s fears and emotions. It is very, very easy to build up at least 30% or 40% of "No" votes. We had the children’s referendum and I was astonished that a percentage somewhere in the high 30s voted "No" when there was not even a single political party advocating “No”. What I am saying now to those who, like myself, aspire to a united Ireland is that a package has to be prepared that will be supported by 51%, at least, of the people of Northern Ireland. For that to happen, 51% of the people of Northern Ireland will have to be convinced that by marking a particular box on a ballot paper they will be better off, not worse off, and their future will be better if they mark the box beside “Yes” rather than the “No” box. That is the fundamental reality. Sinn Féin calls for various steps to be taken to articulate what a united Ireland would be, can be and should be. I aspire to a united Ireland like it does but I wonder why it is that those who call loudest for an early poll are the people who have not done the homework themselves. Where is the document? There was “Éire Nua” when I was a kid in college. Where is the document now where Sinn Féin says, “This is what we believe a united Ireland will be and this document can be read by everybody in Northern Ireland - Protestant, unionist, Catholic, republican, loyalist, nationalist, whatever you want - and this is our vision for a united Ireland”? Where is the document that sets it out not just in visionary terms but details precisely how it will work?If, for instance, someone is a doctor in the Northern Ireland health service - I heard it mentioned here that there will be a new health service - will that be better? Will there be more resources? If someone is a lawyer in Northern Ireland, will the courts system and the legal system there be absorbed into a new all-Ireland system or will it be preserved for the time being? Will there be transitional provisions? What will be the effect in the context of all sorts of practical issues?

Much more importantly, in accordance with the Good Friday Agreement, what is going to be the dimension of this new Ireland which is going to recognise Britishness and the loyalist and Protestant traditions in Northern Ireland? How is that going to be given concrete effect? I say this to Sinn Féin: go and do the work.

On one occasion I made the point at the JFK summer school that a confederal system on this island, a transitional arrangement, is more likely to succeed in getting to 51% support than a big bang whereby one day we all wake up to an entirely new state with entirely new institutions. People have fears, even those in the South, regarding issues such as whether the Constitution will still protect their property rights. All of those issues will work to decide, one way or the other, whether there is going to be at least 51% in favour of a united Ireland. People are not going to buy a pig in a poke.

I will happily work with anybody to generate a model or a number of models designed to get 51% support. Northern unionists, Protestants and Northern Catholics who are disposed towards remaining in the United Kingdom have to be shown that somebody is coming up with something that is better than the society in which they live at the moment. That requires really hard work. It requires work on the part of the southern Government. It also requires that those who are involved in the political process south of the Border state what it would be like if people voted "Yes" for a united Ireland. If we do not spell out the package in absolute detail, then the relevant proposal will be defeated in a referendum held on both sides of the Border. It could even be defeated in the South as well as in the North.