Peter Burke (Longford-Westmeath, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

I thank the Senator for raising this matter and providing an opportunity for me to clarify this very important position.As the Senator is aware, there is an urgent need to increase national housing supply to meet existing housing demand to the greatest extent possible in the shortest time possible, while also accommodating projected national housing demand likely to arise as a result of future population growth. Anticipated population growth is projected to be around 1 million people by 2040. The national planning framework, NPF, sets out a spatial strategy to accommodate that level of population and related housing growth over the next 20 years. In particular, the NPF seeks to ensure more balanced regional development led by the growth of Ireland's five cities and five identified regional and cross-Border drivers. It also aims to ensure that a greater proportion of housing demand arising in Ireland's cities and towns can be accommodated within and close to those cities and towns and thereby avoid sprawl into surrounding counties. The NPF is explicit that, rather than focus on seeking additional housing development in locations that have been subject to rapid development and require infrastructure and services to further catch up, some locations should include planning for a greater focus on deficits, such as targeting greater employment and the needs of existing communities, as well as housing.

More broadly, there is a need to encourage increased housing output nationally to meet NPF targeted population growth in the years ahead, especially over the next decade. To assist in the preparation of individual city or county development plans over six-year timelines, an NPF roadmap circular was issued to all planning authorities in 2018, setting out targeted population growth for each county to 2026 and 2031. These targets remain valid. To build on this work, earlier this year my Department commissioned the Economic and Social Research Institute, ESRI, to carry out independent research into structural housing demand in Ireland to 2040. The ESRI research report was published earlier this week and further develops the population projection model that was used for the NPF. What the ESRI work is telling us is that factoring in existing housing demand, together with future projected demand, will require annual average national demand for just over 33,000 new households per annum to be met over the next decade. To meet this average over the period means that there is a requirement to substantially increase national housing output from the current estimated 2020 level of 18,000 homes to 20,000 homes.

Achieving projected levels of population and housing growth in accordance with the NPF will require an increase in annual average housing output in almost every local authority area in Ireland, also recognising that there are some local authorities where recent levels of housing supply are close to or exceed annual average NPF targets. These mainly comprise commuter counties adjoining Dublin, as articulated by the Senator, and are currently meeting a proportion of the very high levels of housing demand arising in Dublin, which is not being met by new housing within the existing city area.

To facilitate convergence with the NPF development scenario, we will enhance the alignment of public investment with NPF objectives to stimulate urban brownfield and public transport-led housing development at scale in Dublin and the other cities, including measures to encourage accelerated regional city growth and balanced regional development.

In the coming days, the senior Minister, Deputy Darragh O'Brien, will issue a circular to all 31 local authorities with guidance required for NPF targets and new ministerial guidelines that describe a housing supply target methodology for development planning, to be issued under section 28 of the Planning and Development Act, as amended. This circular and guidance will reflect the balanced approach necessary to ensure the six-year local authority planning cycles, while converging towards the preferred NPF scenario, can also reflect both the capacities to increase housing delivery and actual levels of housing output on the ground in the near term. It is also critical to meeting national housing supply targets during the next phase of activity and output and will form an essential part of Ireland's economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.