Sharon Keogan (Independent) | Oireachtas source

I sincerely thank the Cathaoirleach for selecting my Commencement matter and welcome the Minister of State who has come here to respond to my question.

I previously served as a county councillor in Meath and, therefore, realise how vitally important clarity is for everyone in the formation and execution of housing policy and development plans. I seek clarity for the public who need housing, for the elected councillors and for the chief executives of the 31 local authorities that form and execute housing policy in their respective local authority areas.

Undoubtedly, there is a clear and pressing need for more housing to cater for the people who currently live in Ireland and those who emigrate to Ireland. Increasing supply, apart from anything else, could have a dampening effect on increasing house prices and alleviate affordability to some extent. What is not known is precisely how many housing units will be needed over the coming decades and whether there are ceilings or strict parameters on the number of units that each local authority may build. Reliable, accurate data on population trends and demographics is vital for ensuring that the number, type and location of housing units suit the evolving needs of our growing population. There does seem to be conflicting data and estimates as to the exact number of housing units that will be needed to meet demand over the coming years and decades until 2040.

The national planning framework states, "Annual housing output will need to increase to 30,000 to 35,000 homes per annum in the years to 2027", and will be subject to monitoring and review. I welcome the publication of the report by the Economic and Social Research Institute, ESRI, entitled Regional Demographics and Structural Housing Demand at a County Level. The report contains expert opinions on the trends that feed into the targets of housing units that will be needed. Section 5.6 of the report is interesting in light of the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic. Between 18,000 and 20,000 units only will be completed this year on account of the cessation of construction during lockdown. However, the report notes that the pandemic could ease pressure on housing demand.

A particular concern of mine is the Dublin region and surrounding counties known as the commuter belt. The ESRI report outlines different scenarios of population growth. Its baseline scenario predicts that regions of the east and midlands are expected to experience the fastest population growth and will capture the majority of the total expected population growth over the period from 2016 to 2040 of 55.6% or 500,000 people. This evidence points towards the need for more housing to be built in the east and midlands. Contrary to this urgent need, I am aware that some local authorities have dezoned lands that were zoned for residential development, and that includes Meath and Kildare. This includes the so-called post-2019 land. Such dezoning has been done contrary to the policy contained in the spatial strategy whereby land zoned for development would not be subsequently dezoned. Can the Minister of State comment on the matter? Can he call on local authorities to ensure that they do not dezone land that will be needed to meet demand in the future?

On 1 December the Minister of State, or another Minister of State from his Department, was present to discuss the national planning framework when it was clearly stated that "the national planning framework does not either remove one-off local needs planning for rural houses or impose rezoning or de-zoning population caps". It seems that local authorities have received conflicting information on the number of housing units to be delivered in the future. I hope that the Minister of State's answer to my question will eliminate uncertainty about these policy matters.