Simon Harris (Wicklow, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

I would not want to do anything that would short circuit our exchanges on Committee Stage of the Finance Bill as it is an enjoyable experience. The Senators will be aware that a similar amendment was proposed in the Dáil and that it was the subject of significant debate on Committee and Report Stages. During those debates both myself the Minister for Finance, Deputy Michael Noonan, and I highlighted that a substantial amount of the analysis sought by the recommendation had already been published. I brought a copy with me. On 4 November the Department of Social Protection published a social impact assessment of the welfare and income tax measures included in budget 2016. The social impact assessment was completed in consultation with the Department of Finance of the income tax elements of the budget and consistent with the Department's analysis of the impact of the budget package.

Using the ESRI's tax welfare simulation model, SWITCH, the social impact assessment includes a breakdown of the impact of tax and welfare measures, respectively, as well as presenting the overall distributional impact of budget 2016 by income group and family type. It also examines the impact of the budget on the at risk of poverty rate and work incentives, as well as the impact of the change in the minimum wage. Expansion of the SWITCH model has also enabled the incorporation this year of investment in the early childhood care and education scheme into the social impact assessment. The inclusion of the distributional impact by family type in the SWITCH model facilitates comparisons of the distributional impact of the budget on families with and without children, by employment or retirement status and for lone parents. All of these comparisons are presented in the social impact assessment.

At this time it is not possible to use the SWITCH model to assess the impact of budgets on groups of people based on their disability status, but that is something on which we should be working together. As I have pointed out previously, there are significant efforts under way to further expand the capacity of this model. This is evidenced by the work done in the modelling of medical cards and the early childhood care and education scheme. For further information, the budget book also includes a range of material on distributional impact issues explaining the impact of the budget. It includes a series of tables showing the impact of budgetary measures at a range of income levels for different income earners, a variety of illustrative cases providing examples of change in net income, for example, household types, the extent to which income is redistributed through the tax and welfare systems and the progressivity of the income tax system.

That said, we have a SWITCH model which is delivering a social impact assessment. It was published on 4 November. We should be working to increase its capacity. A number of new measures have been added to it this year, including the early childhood and education scheme. This is the model we should continue to follow. Therefore, I am not in a position to accept the recommendation.