Mary White (Fianna Fail)

I welcome the Minister of State, Deputy Mansergh. There is no harm in indicating that we had an earlier Celtic tiger. In the period 1994-99 we had a genuine Celtic tiger economy, during which Ireland experienced super growth, with an annual average increase of 8% in GNP. This growth was based on exports and competitiveness. During the second Celtic tiger period between 2002 and 2007 the annual growth rate averaged 5.4%. While this figure was somewhat below the previous "tiger" period, it was well ahead of the general European Union growth rate. However, as we now realise, the second Celtic tiger was to a great extent an illusion and a mirage based on unsustainable increases in bank lending. These reached 30% per annum and fuelled personal spending, property development and construction at a time when our export competitiveness steadily eroded. The price being paid for these excesses is clear, namely, a collapse in construction, bank bailouts on a global scale and tough and painful measures to return the public sector deficit to a sustainable level that is acceptable to the European Union.

Premature assessments that the economy has emerged from recession create scepticism and frustration in a large part of the business community, namely, the tourism sector, retail trade and domestically orientated enterprises where business remains tough. Companies are still collapsing at an unprecedented rate and the average waiting period for outstanding credit has extended to approximately 70 days.

Ireland has two different economies. The exporting sector is dominated by foreign direct investment and a growing band of indigenous exporters, including high-tech global companies. These are currently the main sources of growth in the economy. I cannot recall how many times I have pointed out that unless we produce products or provide services that people want to buy or attract tourists, the economy will not go anywhere. Without exports, we will not make money. I am proud that Lir Chocolates, which started in Connie's Kitchen, is primarily an exporter and employes 250 people in Navan.

The human impact of the recession is stark. For example, the downward trend in suicide in recent years has gone into reverse. We are all aware of prominent business people who have taken their lives and the indications are that many others have been overwhelmed by the debts they face.

The live register figures published every month are the most frequently referenced measures of unemployment. The figure of 450,000 for August is the most commonly cited figure for unemployment. Last week, the September live register figures showed a decline of 5,400 to 449,000. This fall is believed to reflect the intake of students to third level colleges. The live register, as the note provided each month by the Central Statistics Office makes clear, is not an accurate measure of unemployment. It is worth reading the note in full because it is ignored in public discourse:

The Live Register is not designed to measure unemployment. It includes part-time workers (those who work up to three days a week), seasonal and casual workers entitled to Jobseekers Benefit or Allowance. Unemployment is measured by the Quarterly National Household Survey and the latest seasonally adjusted figure, for January to March 2010, is 277,000 persons unemployed.

The average number of people on the seasonally adjusted live register in the period from January to March last was 433,000 or an overstatement of 156,000 when compared to the figure the CSO considers to be the proper measure of unemployment. It is not politically correct to point this out even though most employers do not regard the live register as an accurate measure of labour availability.

To balance this analysis it is only proper to consider changes in emigration as measuring another part of the human impact of the recession. Emigration in the most recent year - to the end of April 2010 - was 65,000, of which 28,000 were Irish nationals. In recent years, the level of what may be termed "normal voluntary emigration" of Irish nationals has been 13,000 per annum. One can, therefore, reasonably conclude that approximately 15,000 Irish people emigrated in the most recent year as a result of the recession.

Public and media commentary tends to take the most extreme of the unemployment and emigration data to portray the most negative version of economic affairs. When combined with the daily diet of banking bailout news the resulting continuous negativity in public discourse creates a highly discouraging environment for enterprise. I know young, educated Irish people who are happy to escape such an environment to move to more positive growth economies such as Singapore and other countries in Asia.

Despite the current uncertainty and challenges, the price we are paying for borrowing, the ultimate cost of the bank bailouts and the tough budget that lies ahead in December, the economy will experience a real GNP growth of more than 2% next year. According to the Economic and Social Research Institute, annual growth will reach an average of between 3% and 4% in the years from 2011 to 2015. Most significantly, the ESRI expects employment to expand by an average of between 1% and 2% in each of the next five years. I conclude on that optimistic note.