Dan Boyle (Green Party)

It is significant that we are debating the Appropriation Bill today because the Dáil chooses not to debate it every year and because we have an early day motion — one of the functions of the Seanad — to facilitate this important legislation connected with the budget. It gives us an opportunity to examine details on which previous speakers have commented. The most pertinent theme, however, is the variation in estimates by the Department of Finance and agencies such as the ESRI.

The Appropriation Bill is the legal framework to ensure the figures allocated are spent and in recent years the Government has spent what it intended to spend, as it said it would. There have been drags in income from tax receipts but there has been a reduction in Supplementary Estimates which indicates a control of public expenditure not seen in the past. Economics is an inexact science. I would like to see any economic forecast by any group that was accurate. The variation exists because no one knows what the future holds.

While I have a great deal of respect for the ESRI, its report is excessively doom laden not only because of its economic figures but in the way it deals with the proposed 3% cut in carbon emissions. This is an ambitious target and may not be achieved but the commentary in the report on the effect of working towards that figure showed no understanding of the economic benefits of reducing carbon's domination in the economy. The commentary colours the other figures for the general economic indicators.

The budget has been produced on the principle of prudence that should inform all budgets. The only quibble arises on the hope that inflation will be in the region of 3% in 2008, down from today's 5%. That assumption is based on the belief that we have come out of the cycle of 18 European Central Bank interest rises in a row and that there is no indication of further increases in the next year. Interest rates may even drop which it is hoped will have an impact on our inflation rate. Even if growth is between 2% and 3% next year, that is still significantly higher than that in any European country.

It remains growth at a time when the global economy is uncertain. We will produce a net increase in jobs and many thousands of houses will be built next year. No one predicts an economic collapse for 2008. The only debate today is whether the figures from the Department of Finance or those from the ESRI are more likely to come true. I am prepared to wait and see.

Compared with sets of figures produced in the past, both sets are based on reality but they remain educated guesswork. I am optimistic that the assumptions underlying the budget are intended to protect and enhance economic performance in 2008 and that we will reach and possibly exceed some of its targets. It was also framed in such a way that those on the margins of society receive the most protection which should be one of the underlying principles of any budget. The appropriations allocated in this Bill reflect that. A total of 70% of all public expenditure is in the areas of health, social welfare and education which shows how we see public services and how the business of Government should be organised. If there is disagreement about that we should have a debate, but I do not sense that from the other parties or the Independent Members of the House. We all recognise instead that the focus of public expenditure is right and that the targets generally are being met. The only question is whose statistics are correct, the Department's or the ESRI's. When we return to this debate next year we will know the answer but I am confident that the variance will not be great.