Shane Ross (Independent)

I am disappointed in the Bill and the Government's economic outlook. I say that as one who for many years supported by and large the economic policies and budgets introduced by the former Minister for Finance, Charlie McCreevy, and the Tánaiste and Minister for Finance, Deputy Cowen. What the two Ministers did during the Celtic tiger years was instrumental and helpful to the prosperity of this economy.

It is much easier, however, to manage an economy when it is prospering with external influences assisting it. I am concerned the Government shows little capability of managing the economy in more difficult times. It shows a great reluctance to recognise that the years of boom are over. It is no great shame that has happened. They had to come to an end. It is not necessarily the Government's fault.

On this morning's Order of Business I drew attention to the recent ESRI report. Not to put too fine a point on it, the ESRI has rubbished the Government's economic forecasts. These are the people who were dubbed by the former Minister, Michael McDowell, as the Government's house-trained poodles, which they no longer are. It is bad enough to rubbish the forecasts, but to do it within two weeks of the budget raises concerns. While I accept economic conditions are changing fast, one could understand a revision in three months' time but not within two weeks.

In The Irish Times this morning, Paul Tansey summed up well the situation. Some of the figures in the forecasts are dramatic. The ESRI forecasts a 3.7% decline in the volume of gross fixed investments in 2008 while the Department of Finance anticipates a fall of just 1.6%. That is an enormous and inexplicable difference. He continued to highlight the differences. The Government forecasts 5.6% for exports, the ESRI, 5%. On imports it is similar. The Government forecasts gross domestic product at 3%, the ESRI at 2.3%. The Government forecasts gross national product at 2.8%, the ESRI at 2.3%. The Government forecasts employment growth at 1.1%, the ESRI at 0.4%. The Government forecasts the unemployment rate at 5.6%, the ESRI at 5.8%. The Government forecasts the inflation rate at 2.4%, the ESRI at 2.8%

The pattern is clear. On every single figure, the Department of Finance makes a more optimistic prediction than the independent ESRI. I am reluctant to claim books are being cooked but one wonders why such an optimistic forecast in the Government's figures is not reflected in the ESRI's figures.

It was Mr. John Fitzgerald of the ESRI who was the first and only person to predict the fall in the property market in the past year. With a great deal of courage, he forecasted almost exactly what happened. His predictions at the time were pooh-poohed by Government spokesmen, apologists for the construction industry, auctioneers and banks. The ESRI has credibility in its forecasts, whereas the Government has different motives.

With the Appropriation Bill, I am concerned the figures and forecasts relevant to it are historic and irrelevant. I would like the Minister of State, Deputy Noel Ahern, to comment on this.

This morning, FÁS, another Government agency, made a dramatic statement on the minimum wage. It is not one of my favourite agencies. I have always regarded it as being benevolently cared for by the Government and have found it difficult to understand how it uses its budget. In an amazing report, however, FÁS warns that the Government should examine the minimum wage. When I heard the headline this morning I assumed it would say the minimum wage should be increased because the State agencies always say that sort of thing. I was astonished to hear that FÁS is standing over a report recommending that the minimum wage should be reduced. That is staggering. I would not advocate that and it is politically impossible for the Government to do that. It is a stark reminder of how FÁS sees the state of the public finances and the labour market.

Child care is crucial because it reflects so much of what is happening in the Celtic tiger economy. The budget and the Appropriation Bill have neglected two areas: how we cope with the real difficulties facing mothers whether at home or not, and the plight of autistic children. They appear to have been neglected once again in this budget despite promises, heavy lobbying and great efforts by politicians. It would take very little to make a major difference to autistic children who are not getting the right treatment.