Pa Daly (Kerry, Sinn Fein)
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101. To ask the Minister for Environment, Community and Local Government if he is aware of the latest emissions figures as reported by the Environmental Protection Agency; the steps he is taking to address this; the contingency measures he is putting in place; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [30271/25]

Ciarán Ahern (Dublin South West, Labour)
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102. To ask the Minister for Environment, Community and Local Government the reason, according to analysis from the Environmental Protection Agency, Ireland will only deliver a 23% reduction in emissions by 2030, not the 51% target in the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Act 2021, or the 42% target in the EU effort sharing regulation; how the State plans to finance the potential fines of up to €26 billion for missing EU targets; the actions he will take to remedy the situation and reduce our target emissions gap; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [30748/25]

Pa Daly (Kerry, Sinn Fein)
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The Minister is probably aware of the latest emissions figures as reported by the Environmental Protection Agency last week. It is a stark warning. Ireland seems to have gone backwards in its climate ambition because the latest greenhouse gas emissions projections form the EPA said emissions would fall by up to 23% if every climate policy currently planned is implemented on time, down from the projection of 29% during the previous year. The gap is widening between what is achievable and what are legally binding emissions reductions.

Mattie McGrath (Tipperary South, Independent)
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This question is being taken with Question No. 102 so I call Deputy Ahern.

Ciarán Ahern (Dublin South West, Labour)
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My question is the same. I am happy for the Minister to answer about how the gap is widening.

Darragh O'Brien (Dublin Fingal East, Fianna Fail)
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I propose to take Questions Nos. 101 and 102 together.

I thank both Deputies for the questions. The latest projections from the EPA are a clear signal that, while we have made progress, we need to move faster to meet our 2030 climate targets, and that is going to be incredibly challenging and incredibly difficult. The Government is building significant momentum and the EPA's analysis will help to guide that. In particular, the next phase of the work as we accelerate delivery to meet and exceed our ambitious climate targets. Our progress in recent years provides a strong foundation for this acceleration. In 2023, for example, Ireland achieved its most substantial single-year emissions reduction on record, falling by 6.8%. This is clear evidence that policies are delivering tangible results. We are successfully demonstrating that a thriving economy and climate can go hand in hand.

Since 1990, and it is important to look at where we have come from, our economy has grown dramatically and our population has increased by half. Over the period 1990 to 2005, emissions increased from 56 megatonnes to 70.2 megatonnes, but since the peak, Ireland has successfully reduced these emissions by 22% to 55 megatonnes, showing that, with a determined response, we can reverse these trends in the most challenging of circumstances.

We have always known that meeting the carbon budgets and delivering the economic and societal transformation will be challenging. All of us recognise that. However, the vast majority of people in this country back climate action and we are already dealing with the effects of climate change, so this Government's mandate and resolve around climate action is unwavering. It is important to remember that Government initiatives are working and Irish people, communities and businesses are making this change. We need to accelerate and build on that momentum.

It is important to recognise those efforts across Irish society. We achieved almost a 7% reduction in emissions in 2023. We are undergoing a renewables-led energy transformation. Peat is gone, coal is on the way out by the end of this month, and renewables are now the backbone of our power mix. Electricity generation from renewables has increased fivefold since 2005. A total of 40% of Ireland's electricity demand was met by renewable energy last year. This represents significant progress since 2005 when the comparable figure was 7% of our energy being generated by renewables compared with 40% last year.

By 2025, Ireland has 6.5 GW of grid scale renewable electricity generation capacity, which comprises 5 GW of wind and 1.5 GW of solar. This is 13 times the 0.5 GW of solar and wind electricity infrastructure that Ireland had in 2005. We are delivering new interconnectors. The Greenlink interconnector to Britain is now operational. That doubles Ireland's interconnector capacity. The Celtic interconnector to France is on track to be completed by 2026-27. The North-South project, which is crucial, is advancing, yet delayed. These projects boost energy security and allow greater import and export of clean power. Private wires policy, which I will introduce, is designed to unlock private investment in electricity infrastructure by allowing generators to connect directly with users. This will mean quicker connections, more clean power on the ground and less strain on our national grid. The switch to electric vehicles, EVs, is accelerating. While we did not hit our target last year and it is unlikely that the target of more than 900,000 vehicles by 2030 will be hit, we will still have a significant increase. In April, there was a 23% increase in EV registrations compared to the same time last year.

Pa Daly (Kerry, Sinn Fein)
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The thrust of the question is why the slowdown and what measures exactly is the Minister taking to accelerate or redress the apparent slowdown, according to the statistics from the EPA. On the ramifications, we all know about the ecological collapse and energy independence. We know that there is a need for clean energy and to reduce the bills of consumers but the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council and the Climate Change Advisory Council have said that it could cost us up €26 billion in effective fines from the European Union. The 23% figure is based on additional measures that have yet to be identified. With the Government's plan, the best we can hope for is a reduction of 9%. What exactly are those additional measures? What are the unallocated savings? What we need from the Minister are urgent measures such as the publication of the land use review, the onshore wind energy guidelines and the marine protected areas legislation. Where are those?

Ciarán Ahern (Dublin South West, Labour)
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The Minister referred to moving faster and we agree with him. He mentioned 1990, 1995 and 2005 figures, but these are irrelevant. The only figures that we are concerned with in this House anymore are the 2018 base levels. We need a 51% reduction from them by 2030. We are miles away from it and we are getting further. Is the Minister worried about the gap between promise and delivery? Can he tell us once and for all whether he has given up on the 51% reduction target by 2030? His own climate action plan for this year if implemented in full, which is vanishingly unlikely, will only bring us to reductions of 42% by 2030. What is he going to do? What radical steps is he going to take to increase the speed of delivery as he has pointed to here?

Darragh O'Brien (Dublin Fingal East, Fianna Fail)
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Unquestionably, there are major challenges with meeting the 2030 targets. Anybody can see that from the EPA projections and previous projections. It is not hopeless though, not in any way, shape or form. I mentioned specifically energy generation because that is going to be the key and cornerstone to a reduction in dependence on fossil in particular and reducing carbon emissions while securing our energy future. The reason I have gone back to 2005 is to show that these things are possible because if we look at where we were on renewables in 2005, 7% of our energy was generated through them. It is now 40%. If I use 2018 as an example, 0.6% of energy was generated through solar. Now on a good day, it is 14%. There are improvements. There are challenges in some sectors, certainly in transport. I have referenced the fact that since 1990, our GDP has grown six times. Our population has increased by 50%. They are the realities that we are dealing with. That is a good thing. We also need to ensure that we continue to transition our fleet, particularly in public transport, and to invest in that. Last year, there were record numbers of public transport users. There were a total of 330 billion public transport user journeys right the way through the year and we can do more. It is a combination of that.

On the land use review that the Deputy asked about, I am meeting Geraldine Tallon this week again. I expect that the review will be published in the coming weeks. It will be an important guide there as well. There remains issues on unallocated savings. It is about increasing the pace of change and increasing delivery. The State has not done well on offshore renewables but we have created the architecture and infrastructure to do that. Five projects off the east coast are into the further information stage in planning. A decision is to be made by An Bord Pleanála. I hope that it is responded to expeditiously. We have a major opportunity with regard to offshore renewables. We will hit aspects within our targets. The overall target is still going to be extremely challenging. It will be very difficult as outlined by the EPA, but that should ensure that we redouble our efforts to do everything we can to tackle climate change and to transition to a greener cleaner economy.

Pa Daly (Kerry, Sinn Fein)
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The Minister hinted at electric vehicles. The EPA report emphasised not only that the plan is not working but also its unfairness. It is not being done in an inclusive way. Many people are locked out of the Government's schemes. As the Minister mentioned, we need to have hundreds of thousands more EVs to keep within the carbon budget but the grant scheme that the Government has does very little to help ordinary workers and families who cannot afford the huge price. According to the latest research, the Government scheme does not adequately support lower income households, impedes EV take-up and jeopardises the achievement of emission targets. That is reflected in the uptake where it is concentrated mostly in wealthy areas of Dublin and Cork, but working-class and rural areas are left behind. If someone can already afford a car that costs €45,000, a grant of €3,500 is not really going to cut the mustard. Will the Minister introduce tiered grants to encourage more people to access EVs?

Ciarán Ahern (Dublin South West, Labour)
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Not only is the Government failing in this regard, it is also regrettably going backwards. Only last year, it was predicted that the State could reach 29% emission reductions. This year, it was reduced to 23% by the EPA. Our target for 2030 is that 80% of our energy will be renewable. The EPA is telling us that now only approximately 68% will be able to be renewable by 2030. When it comes to transport, the Minister referenced the number of EVs on the roads. The EPA is not even bothering with the previous goal of almost 1 million cars on the road; it is now talking about approximately 650,000 EVs on the road by 2030 at best. It feels that the Minister is pursuing policies that are pushing us further and further away from reaching our climate goals through the Government's pursuit of road over rail and obsession with energy hungry data centres. There is change in policy on fracked gas and the green light was given for liquefied natural gas, LNG, terminals and increased fire powered generation. I call on the Minister again to change course.

Darragh O'Brien (Dublin Fingal East, Fianna Fail)
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Let us look at the facts. We all agree that the targets were always going to be challenging but we are still focused on doing our level best to achieve them. Certain sectors have done significantly well. If we look at energy industries, there is a 21.6% reduction in emissions while it is 4.6% in agriculture, 7% in residential and 5.8% in industry. Transport emissions did increase marginally by 0.3% but emissions are now 4.3% below 2019 pre-Covid levels. We are seeing things going in the right direction but not fast enough. There are things that we can do. If we look at renewable energy, there is the 80% target to 2030. That is a significant target, even the EPA projection is that we will be at 68% of our energy. Let us be frank about it: the offshore projects have been delayed, probably by another 18 months, because of decisions that have been made by An Bord Pleanála. An Bord Pleanála is there to make those decisions. I am not criticising it. That is just a reality. We cannot ignore that. There is still a commitment to deliver those projects. We have got to see the offshore renewable electricity support scheme, ORESS, 1 projects delivered and in construction. We will have another auction relating to onshore energy, both wind and solar, later this year that there is significant interest in. We are a leader in Europe in onshore renewables. The same will happen with offshore renewables. It is unlikely that all those east coast wind farms will on the grid in 2030 but they should be under construction but if it is in 2031 or 2032 that they are on that will still be a good thing. If 68% to 72% of our energy is being created by renewables even by 2030, that will be significant progress. That will not hit our target but that will be going significantly in the right direction.