Dáil debates

Thursday, 21 September 2017

Ceisteanna - Questions - Priority Questions

National Risk Assessment

3:55 pm

Photo of Stephen DonnellyStephen Donnelly (Wicklow, Fianna Fail)
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3. To ask the Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade if contingency plans are in place across all Departments for a no deal or disorderly exit scenario following Brexit negotiations and following the publication of the National Risk Assessment 2017; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [39917/17]

Photo of Stephen DonnellyStephen Donnelly (Wicklow, Fianna Fail)
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The Minister of State will be aware that the National Risk Assessment 2017 was recently published. One of the material risks it identified for this State is not only Brexit but a disorderly Brexit and a risk of no deal. What contingency plans does the Government have in place across any or all of the Departments specifically to deal with a no deal or disorderly exit of the UK from the EU?

Photo of Helen McEnteeHelen McEntee (Meath East, Fine Gael)
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As Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade with special responsibility for Brexit, Deputy Coveney has responsibility for co-ordinating the whole-of-Government response to Brexit, including developing and advancing Ireland’s approach to the negotiations on the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.

The conclusion of a withdrawal agreement between the EU and the UK is a key priority for the Government. A failure to reach such an agreement, resulting in a disorderly withdrawal, would, I believe and I think we all believe is now universally accepted including in the UK, be hugely damaging for the UK and for the EU, most particularly Ireland.

It is therefore incumbent on all sides to act responsibly and to approach the negotiations in a constructive, positive and ambitious frame of mind, with a willingness to compromise.

The immediate focus is on working with our EU partners and the EU institutions to ensure that the negotiations proceed in a positive manner, with a view to making sufficient progress on the withdrawal issues so that we can move on to discussing in parallel the future EU-UK relationship, including as regards trade. The need for effective transitional arrangements is also now very broadly understood.

At a national level, the Government’s National Risk Assessment 2017, which was published by the Department of the Taoiseach on 29 August following a public consultation, acknowledges the significance of risk arising from Brexit and that Brexit represents an overarching challenge that could have far-reaching impacts on nearly all aspects of national life. It identifies areas where Brexit poses a specific risk, particularly in relation to the economy. The national risk assessment provides a systematic overview of strategic risks facing the country and is not intended to replicate or displace the detailed risk management that is already conducted within Departments and agencies.

As a priority, the Minister, Deputy Coveney, and I continue to work with colleagues across Government to deepen our understanding of the exact consequences of the range of different scenarios. These scenarios include one where no agreement is reached.

By agreement between the Taoiseach and the Minister, Deputy Coveney, new cross-departmental co-ordination structures, chaired at very senior level by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, are being put in place and will be fully operational next week. One of the top priorities will be to develop and pull together the work already done on the effects of a disorderly Brexit and what steps could be taken in response.

Photo of Stephen DonnellyStephen Donnelly (Wicklow, Fianna Fail)
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I thank the Minister of State for her reply. What I have taken from it is that there are no contingency plans in place but there are groups meeting for the first time next week to put them in place.

While that is better than nothing - it is better that these groups are meeting than not meeting - the Brexit vote took place over a year ago and the idea that Government and official committees would start meeting in late September 2017 to begin planning contingencies is appalling. We have heard from the Government the repeated phrase that Brexit has not happened yet, but for anyone trading with the United Kingdom it has happened. Am I right in surmising that there are no contingency plans in place and that the committees will start meeting about contingency plans next week? If that is the case, when will the House expect to see draft contingency plans for discussion?

4:05 pm

Photo of Helen McEnteeHelen McEntee (Meath East, Fine Gael)
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What we all know and can acknowledge and recognise is that we do not know what will be the outcome of Brexit. Very shortly after the referendum last year, the Department of the Taoiseach convened essentially a Cabinet of Ministers and cross-departmental officials to discuss the possible implications, examine how we can mitigate the impact of Brexit, and what the challenges will be within individual Departments but also to consider the possible advantages, if there are any, in that regard. Only last week, the Deputy attended a new stakeholder forum, which is clearly cross-departmental, cross-industry and, importantly, cross-party to make sure that the work that has been done by the various industries, Government agencies and by Departments comes together, that we work together, share and speak with one voice. At that meeting it was clear that we are all on the same page.

Regarding the putting of structures in place, last year budget 2017 allowed for certain factors with respect to this year's budget, most significantly in the agricultural sector but also in other areas. Budget 2018, which will be announced in a few weeks, will certainly contain elements that will support the effects being experienced currently and what effects might come down the road depending on the type of outcome we will have from Brexit.

Photo of Stephen DonnellyStephen Donnelly (Wicklow, Fianna Fail)
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The Minister of State made the point that we do not know what will happen with Brexit, but I put it to her that is exactly the point of having contingency plans. We should have contingency plans because we do not know what will happen, but we do not have them in place. I will give the Minister of State a brief example. I met the British under-aecretary for energy last week in London and he told me that Irish officials in the Department with responsibility for energy have been told not to engage with their British counterparts on developing a contingency plan for energy. As matters stand, if we reach a no-deal situation in 18 months' time, there is no legal framework by which the British can sell us energy, which means the lights would go off in Ireland. We need a contingency plan. We need a legal agreement in place, which the officials would have examined and the politicians would have reviewed and debated that provides that if we hit a worse case scenario where Britain tumbles out of the EU and there is no agreement on a single energy market that we can take out an agreement we have put in place in order that the lights can stay on here. That is what is at stake here. When can we expect to see some of this? Does the Minister of State agree that our officials need to engage with their UK counterparts to start putting emergency legal frameworks and contingency plans in place?

Photo of Helen McEnteeHelen McEntee (Meath East, Fine Gael)
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With respect to the negotiations, Ireland will negotiate as part of one of 27, and that is very clear. The Deputy pointed to the energy sector. Energy is a core sectoral policy domain of the European Union. It is one of the key links between Ireland and the UK. To focus on Ireland's energy needs in this context, it poses particular challenges with Brexit on the horizon. We have set out four key energy priorities in regard to Brexit - first, maintaining trade and secure supplies of energy between the UK and member states; second, maintaining the single electricity market across the Island of Ireland; third, accommodating Ireland's ability to meet the EU obligations; and, fourth, supporting energy infrastructure. Each Department is examining what the possible challenges will be coming down the line, what the implications will be with a hard Brexit, a soft Brexit and no Brexit, and what possible actions will need to be taken and put in to place. All that work has been done. Departments have not been sitting on their hands waiting to see whether we will have a hard Brexit. While some of those have not come together in the current format in terms of next week, a great deal of work has already been done, and, in that respect, I believe, it is a matter of joining up the dots.