Mick Wallace (Wexford, Independent)
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13. To ask the Minister for Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation if she has read the recent study by Tufts University which uses the UN economic model to show that the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, CETA, will lead to job losses, a reduction in the labour income share and losses in GDP; her views in this regard; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [32945/16]

Mick Wallace (Wexford, Independent)
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Has the Minister read the study by Tufts University in Boston which provides alternative projections for the CETA's economic effects? Using the United Nations' global policy model, it shows that the CETA will lead to job losses, a reduction in the labour income share and losses in GDP. It is entitled, CETA Without Blinders: How Cutting 'Trade Costs and More' Will Cause Unemployment, Inequality and Welfare Losses, and presents evidence which shows that the CETA will have negative implications for social cohesion.

Mary Mitchell O'Connor (Dún Laoghaire, Fine Gael)
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This question deals with technical economic modelling. The sustainability impact assessment, SIA, assesses the likely benefits of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, CETA, and provides a comprehensive prediction on the impacts of the agreement. The study uses the so-called computable general equilibrium, CGE, model to simulate the impact of the CETA. These are standard tools for trade economists that create a computerised simulation of the world economy and model what happens when changes to tariffs and quotas are introduced. The CGE model used is state-of-the-art. It relies on assumptions about the economy in order to work, but these are as reasonable as possible to make it as close to the real world as possible. For example, the model is able to account for the effects of economies of scale, different skill levels of employees, imperfect competition between companies and many other features of the real world economy.

Like any model, the CGE model may have its limitations. The model gives us our best indication of the economic effects rather than precise predictions of exactly what will happen. However, alternatives to the CGE approach such as the study referred to by the Deputy have not yet proved to be sufficiently reliable for an ex anteanalysis of economy-wide effects of trade policy changes.

Mick Wallace (Wexford, Independent)
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The Minister referred to the computable general equilibrium, CGE, model. This trade model assumes full employment and neutral income distribution in all countries, which clearly is an unrealistic assumption. It excludes any of the major and already proven risks of deeper liberalisation. The Tufts University paper argues that, by their design, the studies which use the single same CGE model do not form a reliable basis for assessing the CETA and its projected impacts. Is the Minister interested in a realistic and intellectually diverse approach to the CETA? The Government appears to have shut down any alternative or dissenting opinion on the CETA. I note that there is no reference to the CETA or the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, TTIP, in the programme for Government, which is amazing, given the implications of the two trade agreements for the people of Ireland. There is huge public concern about them. People are very concerned about the implications they might have for their lifestyles.

Mary Mitchell O'Connor (Dún Laoghaire, Fine Gael)
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The Tufts study uses a hypothetical model which is not suitable in analysing complex trade agreements. Quite honestly, I prefer to look at real examples and the evidence we already have available. One such example is the EU-Korea Free Trade Agreement. It has led to an increase in Irish exports of 25%, which is proof that free trade agreements work in increasing exports, jobs and growth. We look at what is happening on the ground. Meat Industry Ireland has written to me in support of the CETA. Ireland has strong protections in place for the beef industry and we are very hopeful these new markets will soon be open. Irish companies will be able to bid for Canadian public contracts, as the limitations will end under the CETA.

Mick Wallace (Wexford, Independent)
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If we wish to examine history, rather than future projections, to assess the effects of the so-called trade agreements on employment and trade, we should look at the North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA, with which the CETA has much in common. I will outline some of its results. The North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement led to a staggering US trade deficit of $181 billion with NAFTA partners Mexico and Canada, a net loss of 1 million US jobs, growing income inequality, the displacement of more than 1 million Mexican farmers and a doubling of the level of desperate emigration to the United States from Mexico. An estimated $360 million has been paid to corporations after investor state tribunal attacks on US domestic public interest policies. There is little doubt that Ireland agreeing to the CETA or the TTIP will lead to greater rights and privileges for large corporations and will be to the detriment of small and medium-sized businesses in Ireland. We will not be able to withstand the money these corporations can throw at problems and dispute mechanisms.

Mary Mitchell O'Connor (Dún Laoghaire, Fine Gael)
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Ireland is a small, open economy. I want the benefits of the agreement to come into being, when we can have a fully informed debate based on facts and evidence. I mentioned the example of the EU agreement with South Korea. On the timing, no decision has been made on when we will have a debate here. There are a number of factors. Obviously, the Singapore case is taking place and we will take the decision into account. We hear from small and medium enterprises that the CETA is leading to the opening of markets, especially in the context of Brexit. Small and medium-sized enterprises will be able to seek business in Canada.