Brendan Smith (Cavan-Monaghan, Fianna Fail)
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I thank the Ceann Comhairle for selecting this very important matter for discussion and I am glad that the Minister of State at the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Deputy Deenihan, is present to reply.

A report published today by the Economic and Social Research Institute, ESRI, highlights the possible economic implications of a British exit from the European Union for Ireland across four areas - trade, foreign direct investment, energy and migration. The findings make for sobering reading and it is clear from the report that the consequences for Ireland would be far reaching and wide-ranging. Among the findings is that it is estimated that a Brexit could reduce bilateral trade flows between Ireland and Britain by 20% or more. In addition, less foreign direct investment is likely to result in slower economic growth in Britain which, in turn, would impact negatively on Ireland's economic growth. The report also highlights the fact that the all-island electricity market has been in place since 2007 and that if the electricity market in Britain remains independent of the rest of the European Union, interconnection with Britain only would leave Ireland vulnerable to problems in the British market.

In terms of migration, the report underscores the point that a British exit from the European Union would open up the possibility of restrictions on the free movement of people between Ireland and Britain for the purposes of work. As we all know, Britain has long been a destination for many Irish people seeking work, particularly during times of high unemployment, and an exit from the European Union could have significant repercussions for the Irish labour market. We were all very glad that for a period of seven or eight years, from 2000 onwards, there was huge migration back to Ireland from Britain of former Irish emigrants.

The findings of the ESRI's report are stark and underscore the seriousness of this issue. The referendum will take place in the not too distant future and it is clear that we need to start a national conversation on the implications of a Brexit and what it would mean, not only for Ireland but for the European Union as a whole. If Britain was to leave the European Union, the nature of the most successful transnational organisation ever created would be irrevocably changed.

We in Fianna Fáil believe awareness needs to be created across all of the country of the gravity of this issue in terms of trade, employment, tourism, agriculture, fisheries and food, the free movement of people and, of course, the situation in Northern Ireland. Britain is our nearest neighbour and largest trading partner. We are the only people in the European Union who share a land border with the British jurisdiction. If people in Britain were to vote to leave the European Union, the knock-on effects would be felt the length and breadth of the country, particularly in the Border counties, including my constituency of Cavan-Monaghan. Farmers and food processors, North and South, depend on access to the EU market of 500 million people. The business community would suffer badly from a situation where there was a new border across the Six Counties, a regulatory border that would divide the island once more.

We must re-establish EU solidarity. This is vital if we are to convince Britain and Northern Ireland to remain part of the European Union. The normal EU spirit of solidarity and co-operation between member states is best illustrated in the Border region. Peace programme funding has been vital in supporting the fledgling Agreement framework. Co-operation between the North and the South and between Ireland and Britain has been the engine of the Good Friday Agreement. Our role as co-guarantors of the Agreement binds us together. The Irish and British Governments are co-guarantors of an international agreement lodged with the United Nations. North and South, we have to maximise the potential of the Good Friday Agreement for the good of all of the people on all of the Island. These links were forged in the common ground of the European Union and need to last.

Jimmy Deenihan (Kerry North-West Limerick, Fine Gael)
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I thank the Deputy for raising this issue. As the House will be aware, the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union is a matter of strategic importance for the Government. We believe the United Kingdom's continued membership of the European Union is highly important to Ireland's interests and the interests of the European Union as a whole. All research to date, including the excellent report by the Oireachtas Joint Committee on European Affairs, suggests the overall implications for Ireland would be negative. Obviously, the exact consequences of a UK exit from the European Union would depend on what arrangements were subsequently put in place between the United Kingdom and the European Union.

We do know from various published assessments, not least that published today by the ESRI and commissioned by the Department of Finance, that there would be very significant strategic and economic risks for Ireland if the United Kingdom were to leave the European Union. The ESRI's research has found that, second only to the United Kingdom, of all EU member states, Ireland would suffer the most negative consequences of a British withdrawal, which could be extremely disruptive to the Irish economy, even if the United Kingdom was to maintain a preferential trade agreement with the European Union. The research identifies four key areas where the effects of a Brexit could be significant - trade, foreign direct investment, energy and migration. It also suggests there could be particular impacts on SMEs, certain sectors and regions, including the Border area. The negative implications are not just economic, they would also arise in respect of Northern Ireland and, more broadly, our positioning within the European Union.

The Government is well aware of the challenges and we will continue to deepen our analysis and understanding of the issues at stake. The best way to mitigate these risks is to work hard, with EU partners, to ensure a British exit does not happen.

This Government's overriding focus, therefore, is on helping to keep the UK in the Union, not preparing for its departure. This position has been elaborated many times by the Government, including by the Taoiseach and the Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade, in this House and in keynote speeches such as the Taoiseach's address to the British-Irish Association in Cambridge in September, and the address of the Minister, Deputy Flanagan, at Chatham House in London later that month.

Therefore, as regards the UK's EU reform agenda, from the outset our position has been that we will be as constructive as possible in the negotiations. There are a number of areas where we share British concerns and where we also see room for improvement in how the Union operates. Precise proposals have not yet been put on the table. The Prime Minister is, however, expected to set out some further thinking very soon and a negotiating process will get under way after that. We will play a constructive role in these negotiations, though of course the detail will require careful examination. We want to work with the British Government and all our EU partners in that process so as to find a consensual basis for the UK's continued presence in the Union.

Brendan Smith (Cavan-Monaghan, Fianna Fail)
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I thank the Minister of State for his reply. In my concluding remarks I referred to the Good Friday Agreement and its importance for the development of relations on an all-Ireland framework, namely, the relationships between North and South and east and west which, thankfully, have improved immeasurably over the past 15 or 20 years. Breaking the link by means of a unilateral British and Northern Irish withdrawal from the EU would deal an immense blow to our capacity to continue to work together in the best interests of all the people on this island and in Britain. We must do everything we can to safeguard Ireland's political and economic future. Fianna Fáil will be vocal in supporting Britain remaining a full member state of the European Union.

There is a need to create a better awareness throughout the island of the very serious issue that this is for us. Last July I hosted a public meeting in my own constituency in Cavan, which was addressed by our party leader Deputy Micheál Martin and by senior personnel from the Irish Farmers' Association, Queen's University Belfast and the Centre for Cross Border Studies. The meeting drew a huge attendance from counties Cavan, Monaghan, Louth, Sligo and Leitrim and from north of the Border. The SDLP is planning to hold public meetings north of the Border to create awareness and to ensure that civic society is engaged in the public debate and the campaign that will take place. Civic society will have a key role in ensuring the relevant issues are discussed when the referendum question is put to the people.

All of us who have participated in referendum campaigns here are well aware that, in many instances, issues that were not relevant at all to the question became the dominant issues in the debate. We do not want that to happen with this issue. I appeal to the Minister and the Government to ensure there is good political discourse in this State and throughout all of this island and that civic society is involved as much as possible.

One of the areas on which I would have liked the ESRI to have carried out some study is agriculture and food. Britain is a major trading partner and a hugely important destination for Irish food products and North and South work very closely at European level in agriculture matters. As the Minister will know, it is often the Irish Minister for Agriculture who defends the interest of the farming community and the food industry in Northern Ireland.

I appeal to the Minister not to allow the campaign to come down upon us without the necessary preparatory work having been done by our State to ensure we support Britain remaining a member of the EU in the strongest way possible. I grew up in a Border parish with customs posts on each road and permanent vehicle checkpoints. I do not want to see customs posts again. I want free movement of people on all of our island. It would be a dreadful return to the bad old days for all the people on this island if we were not to have free trade on the island and with the rest of the European Union.

Jimmy Deenihan (Kerry North-West Limerick, Fine Gael)
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I agree that both the east-west and North-South relationships have never been better and they continue to develop. If there was a change of Britain's status within the EU it would set back those developing relationships and would have a huge effect on the economy of this country. A the moment, some €1 billion in exports pass between Ireland and the UK every week so it would have huge implications. It is very important we campaign to ensure there is a rejection of this proposal in the UK.

There are 500,000 people who were born on this island but who live in the UK and one in four of all UK citizens have some Irish DNA so we can have huge influence in this referendum debate and we all have a duty to use that connection. This Government's position is well known. Our overriding focus is on keeping the UK in the European Union. We remain convinced that this is in the best interests, not just of our valued bilateral relationship but also of the Union as a whole.

We are conscious of the significant political, strategic and economic risks for us if the UK were to leave the EU. These are particularly relevant to the Irish economy and to Northern Ireland and, more broadly, to the balances within the EU. The most effective means of reducing these risks is to work hard with EU partners to ensure that a British exit does not happen. Ultimately, it will be for the British electorate to decide upon the future of the UK's relationship with the European Union and it is our sincere hope that they choose to remain within this union of partners and friends where we work together to achieve the best for all our citizens.