Seán Fleming (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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3. To ask the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform if he will provide a projection of the Supplementary Estimates in respect of overall Government expenditure that will be required in 2015, notwithstanding that the final confirmation of supplementary expenditure is not yet available; if these details will be provided in advance of budget 2016; the way in which the supplementary estimates will affect the baseline of expenditure for 2016; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [33646/15]

Seán Fleming (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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I ask the Minister to provide a projection of the Supplementary Estimates in respect of the overall Government expenditure that will be required this year. While I accept that the full details are not available at this stage, I ask him to provide an estimate given that indicative figures are already available in some Departments. If he does not have figures available today, will he have figures in advance of the 2016 Budget Statement in two weeks' time indicating the effect the Supplementary Estimates will have on expenditure requirements in 2016? Will he provide an assurance that he will give an indicative figure for the Supplementary Estimates before budget day?

Brendan Howlin (Wexford, Labour)
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Under the reformed budgetary timetable, the Estimates for expenditure by Departments are outlined every October in the budget and set out in detail in the Revised Estimates Volume published before the end of the year. Under the new budgetary cycle, the Estimates are voted on by the Dáil in the first few months of the year and Departments are expected to live within the voted expenditure. On occasion, however, as the Deputy will be aware, the Estimate for a Department needs to be increased or changed during the course of the year. This occurs for a number of reasons, including policy reasons, for example, when the Government decides it is appropriate to allocate additional funding to certain areas. A second reason could be an overrun in expenditure, which occurs occasionally, for example, in a demand-led area where Estimates are not always exactly accurate. Timing events may also occur, which change the timing of certain receipts or payments, particularly payments from the European Union or appropriations-in-aid that may come later or earlier than expected. Such changes in timing may also alter the voted moneys. Technical adjustments also occur when Departments move money within their Estimates for technical reasons. Such changes must be voted on by the Dáil. As the Deputy will be aware, sometimes the House votes to shift rather than increase money provided for in an Estimate. These are the reasons Supplementary Estimates are introduced.

As outlined in the spring economic statement, Ireland is on course to exit the excessive deficit procedure this year. In this context, the Government is prepared to allocate an appropriate level of additional expenditure in 2015 to enhance delivery of key public services. More details of the 2015 outturn position will be issued at budget time, as requested by the Deputy. Under the Government's fiscal strategy and compliant with the fiscal rules, the budget on 13 October will set out the 2016 level of expenditure, which will be €750 million above the outturn figure.

Seán Fleming (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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To summarise the Minister's response, the House will be given a close estimate of the final outturn of expenditure on budget day. This will include possible Supplementary Estimates, although the figure will not be precise.

Brendan Howlin (Wexford, Labour)
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That is correct.

Seán Fleming (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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If the budget for 2016 is based on the outturn for 2015, the Minister must have a reasonable indication of the 2015 outturn figure. It is possible that no Supplementary Estimates will be introduced. Does this mean the budget will be based on figures in respect of the outturn of expenditure in 2015? If so, will this figure be held back from the Dáil or will this information be shared with members of the public whose money the Government is spending?

The Minister referred to the possibility of €750 million being made available for additional expenditure in the coming year and indicated he wants to live within that figure. However, given that the Supplementary Estimates for 2014 amounted to €1.2 billion, the public is entitled to conclude that the additional expenditure provided for on budget day is only small change when compared to the additional expenditure that will be announced by the end of the year. The Government is diminishing the role of the budget by introducing Supplementary Estimates that are larger than the expenditure increases provided for in the budget.

Brendan Howlin (Wexford, Labour)
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The Deputy asked two questions and I will answer them separately. I will provide the figure we have already allocated to indicate the shape of the additional expenditure I have sanctioned to date. As he will be aware, an additional provision has been made for health in respect of delayed discharges, the fair deal scheme and the winter and waiting lists initiatives. These were set out in the spring economic statement and amounted in total to an additional allocation of €100 million. I also allocated an additional €50 million, also set out in the spring economic statement, to cover a summer capital works programme in the Department of Education and Skills. Supplementary Estimates will be required for that allocation and for the Department of Transport, Tourism and Sport, to which I allocated an additional €100 million before the summer to deliver additional rolling stock for Irish Rail, replace and expand the bus fleet and carry out maintenance work on non-national roads. A number of technical adjustments will also be required. The additional allocation in these three areas alone will amount to €250 million.

The reason we are providing for additional expenditure is that we have the capacity to do so. If the economy was not growing at such a rate and income to the State was not robust, we would not be able to allocate these additional sums. I do not believe the Deputy would decry the additional expenditure I have allocated. Certainly his party would not do so given the Private Members' motions and so forth it has introduced. We have increased spending because we are able to do so.

Seán Fleming (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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If the expenditure is for good purposes, this side of the House will not argue against it. However, as my party's spokesperson on public expenditure, my objective today is to discuss the budgetary process with the Minister. He confirmed that a minimum of €250 million in Supplementary Estimates will be required for the three items of expenditure to which he referred. Further Supplementary Estimates will be required because the Department of Health has exceeded its expenditure allocation. The Minister also stated that he will spend additional money if economic circumstances allow because he will have it. In the budget, the Government will provide an expenditure plan on paper in the full knowledge that if it has more money next year, it will spend it. A full assessment of the forthcoming budget would, therefore, require finding out how much additional revenue the Government expects to receive next year. I presume Supplementary Estimates will be introduced this year and next year. If the Government has more revenue next year, it will spend it and it does not propose to announce this expenditure on budget day.

Brendan Howlin (Wexford, Labour)
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No, that is not the case. The Deputy is fully aware of the new rules under the Stability and Growth Pact. We are exiting the corrective arm of the pact. Our legal objective this year was to have a deficit below 3% of gross domestic product. As long as we maintain a deficit below 3% of GDP under the corrective arm, we could adjust expenditure within that context. However, that will change next year when we enter the preventative arm, where we will have to work in legally agreed steps towards are achieving our medium-term objective, MTR. As such, there will not be scope for Supplementary Estimates next year. We have the capacity to address issues in the course of this year. In many ways, the budgetary analysis will have to be robust to ensure everybody lives within their budgetary allocation for next year.