Michael Creed (Cork North West, Fine Gael)
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Question 66: To ask the Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food the details of the economic analysis carried out by her Department on the impact the World Trade Organisation agreement is expected to have on the beef, dairy, pig and sheep sectors, if accepted in its current format; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [13250/08]

Mary Coughlan (Donegal South West, Fianna Fail)
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The current round of WTO negotiations is ongoing and in the coming weeks further intensive efforts will be made to reach agreement in 2008.

The chair of the WTO agriculture negotiating committee, Crawford Falconer, issued his latest draft modalities paper in February, with a view to making progress in the agriculture negotiations. These negotiations are now focused on addressing several significant outstanding issues across the domestic support, export competition and market access areas which make up the agriculture negotiating pillar. Several substantial issues have yet to be decided upon and there is, as yet, no certainty as to a final outcome.

The Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food carries out a continual range of assessments and analyses of the different negotiating proposals that emerge from the WTO discussions. This analysis covers all agricultural sectors, including the beef, dairy, sheep and pig sectors. It includes, in particular, the assessment of the impact of these proposals on specific product categories.

Similar estimations have been made by various representative bodies and shared with the Department. These detailed calculations are used to evaluate the various negotiating proposals which emerge from the discussions and to develop the Irish negotiating position.

Several other bodies and research institutes, in Ireland and elsewhere, have also carried out economic studies. Some of these analyses attempt a broader assessment of possible outcomes of the negotiations. Inevitably, these studies are based on a wide range of assumptions about issues yet to be decided in the negotiations. The Department also considers and uses these studies to inform negotiating strategies.

The EU Commission recently presented its latest analysis of possible impacts of the most recent proposals from the chairman of the WTO agriculture committee. This analysis is the subject of ongoing discussions between EU member states and the Commission.

The outcome of these negotiations will represent a significant challenge for Irish and EU agriculture. I am concerned with the current direction of the negotiations. I, and my Government colleagues, have and will continue to take every opportunity to express our concerns in the strongest terms in the various EU and WTO meetings dealing with these negotiations. We have also been very active in seeking allies for our position.

The Government will continue to insist the final WTO agreement is a balanced one. It will not be acceptable to me or the Government that EU agriculture is sacrificed for the sake of a deal. The EU has made significant contributions to these negotiations, including the move in the 2003 Common Agricultural Policy reforms to non-trade distorting decoupled payments. The reforms allowed the EU to commit to significant reductions in the levels of trade distorting supports, particularly in production-linked price supports. It is the responsibility of other WTO negotiating partners to make equivalent contributions.

I will continue to insist the Commission pursues balance in the negotiations. The EU, and in particular EU agriculture, cannot be the banker for this WTO round.

Michael Creed (Cork North West, Fine Gael)
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Much jargon surrounds the whole WTO process and, implicit in that, there is much of it in the Minister's reply. I am trying to cut through the fog and find out where we stand.

Various bodies have done analyses on the impact of the negotiations. Does she agree with one analysis that states a 70% tariff reduction in the beef and dairy sector would result in the loss of 50,000 jobs at farm gate level and another 50,000 in the food processing sector, costing the economy €4 billion? Does that tie in with the Department's analysis of the current proposals on the negotiating table?

Mary Coughlan (Donegal South West, Fianna Fail)
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Those figures are from the IFA's analysis which I have noted. I met the IFA, with the Taoiseach, to discuss these figures which are part of all discussions concerning the negotiations. We are at a difficulty in that we are progressing to a ministerial decision in May and cannot say what will happen. We have seen the outcome of analyses of a number of proposals over the past seven and a half years. We do not have a final analysis completed. The IFA——

Michael Creed (Cork North West, Fine Gael)
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The Department does not have a final analysis of the current WTO proposals.

Mary Coughlan (Donegal South West, Fianna Fail)
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The Department does not have a final analysis. The IFA has put forward its analysis and met senior officials in the Department. FAPRI and IBEC have also done their analyses. All these are part of the negotiations and the team. We are in a negotiating position. We have also listened to the EU Commission. However, I do not have a firm analysis completed on Crawford Falconer's, chairman of the WTO agriculture committee, proposals.

Michael Creed (Cork North West, Fine Gael)
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The Minister is dancing on a pinhead when answering this question. She either agrees or disagrees with the IFA's analysis. What were the consequences envisaged by the Department of the 2005 EU Agriculture Council directive to the Commissioner, Peter Mandelson? Surely, it had an analysis done on those proposals.

Mary Coughlan (Donegal South West, Fianna Fail)
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We have a 2005 analysis. The only problem is that is not where we are at now. We are at the 2007 analysis.

Michael Creed (Cork North West, Fine Gael)
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We need to know what the Minister was prepared to concede then.

Mary Coughlan (Donegal South West, Fianna Fail)
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Perhaps the Deputy will reflect on what he said and retract it. This is a negotiation. There was no agreement.

Michael Creed (Cork North West, Fine Gael)
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It was poorly handled.

Brendan Howlin (Wexford, Labour)
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If the Deputy allows the Minister, I will give him a brief supplementary.

Mary Coughlan (Donegal South West, Fianna Fail)
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The agreement in the Hong Kong round was not about market access. The current WTO negotiations are on this issue. We have agreed, to an extent, the 2005 proposals from the Hong Kong round. These were based on parallelism and the methodology being finalised by the Commission and member states, which has not yet happened. It was based on outcome of financial perspectives. When negotiating——

Michael Creed (Cork North West, Fine Gael)
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One needs to know the bottom line.

Mary Coughlan (Donegal South West, Fianna Fail)
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——one does not show one's hand. We were not negotiating market access in 2005. We are negotiating it in 2007 and 2008. We could be negotiating it in 2009 and 2010. Until such time as we reach that, it is inappropriate to analyse because matters are moving. It would be important for Deputy Creed to understand that we are not at the bottom line phase of negotiations. There was no bottom line in the Hong Kong round. We came to a final agreement in 2005 on the issue of export refunds only.

Brendan Howlin (Wexford, Labour)
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Although we are over time on this question, I will allow a final supplementary.

Michael Creed (Cork North West, Fine Gael)
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I hope the Minister will answer this question as it is of vital national interest for on-farm and off-farm employment. Will the Minister use the veto to defeat the current proposals on the table?

Mary Coughlan (Donegal South West, Fianna Fail)
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It is very simplistic of the Deputy to ask this question. I will only agree that we have had good discussions on this matter in the House. Every Member, whether involved in agriculture or otherwise, believes the outcome of the WTO negotiations is important. I believe a balance is the most important outcome that I must attain for Irish agriculture and the agrifood sector.

We are not yet at a position where a final decision must be made. There are ongoing discussions in the Commission and among member states. I will raise this matter once again on Monday when attending the EU Council meeting. I will also have further discussions with the Commission and like-minded Ministers. We are in a process and we are not at the stage of making a final decision.