Willie Penrose (Longford-Westmeath, Labour)
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Question 61: To ask the Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources the position regarding potential power outages in winter 2007 due to underperformance of aging ESB plants; if his attention has been drawn to the outages to date in winter 2007; if so, the details of same; if he is confident that there will be sufficient power supply this winter; the peak usage in winter 2006; the predicted usage in winter 2007; if he will compare the capacity in the system in winter 2006 and winter 2007; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [35629/07]

Eamon Ryan (Dublin South, Green Party)
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A critical task for EirGrid, as the independent transmission system operator, is the provision of an annual winter outlook report. The report provides each year an analysis and prognosis of national electricity generation capacity to meet expected demand over the peak winter months. The 2007 winter outlook report was published by EirGrid last August. Based on its analysis and on detailed engagement with all of the power generators, EirGrid forecasts that electricity generating capacity will be sufficient to meet demand this winter. This is in line with EirGrid's previous medium-term generation adequacy forecasts.

The report assumes a peak generating demand this winter of some 5,250 MW and this compares to the peak generating demand last winter of 5,035 MW. I have been advised by EirGrid that a new customer demand peak of 4,871 MW of generated electricity was reached on Monday, 10 December. The demand was met satisfactorily.

EirGrid also closely monitors the availability of generation capacity on an ongoing basis and provides monthly reports on generation availability levels. EirGrid has advised that some of the units at the ESB plants at Great Island, Poolbeg, Aghada and Turlough Hill have gone on forced outages and in all likelihood most will not now be available over the winter period.

Part of the Tarbert plant, recently on forced outage, has now returned to service and all of that plant is now expected to be available for the winter period. This scenario will result in reduced capacity margins compared with those forecast in the winter outlook report. Generation availability is undoubtedly of continued concern and EirGrid has highlighted the imperative for improved performance. However, the EirGrid analysis remains that the forced outages are broadly in line with probability assessments and, barring further unforeseen significant forced outages, generation capacity will be adequate to meet demand.

As regards outages to date this winter, I am advised that these localised occurrences were not due to a lack of generation adequacy or problems with the transmission system. They were caused by local faults on the low voltage distribution network system, which were repaired as a matter of urgency by ESB networks.

EirGrid advises that the total installed capacity is 6,245 MW, of which EirGrid expects approximately 5,700 MW of capacity will be available over this winter. This includes the new 401 MW plant at Huntstown which has been in operation since October. In addition, available generating capacity of up to 300 MW was imported in 2006 across the interconnector with Northern Ireland.

Additional information not given on the floor of the House.

The capacity to import from Northern Ireland remains available this winter. The contribution of renewable energy to electricity continues to grow. Connected wind capacity is expected to reach over 900 by year end. This represents a very significant increase of over 25% of installed wind capacity since the start of 2007. By 2009 the generation capacity from wind is forecast to reach 1,216.

EirGrid is working closely with generation providers to ensure available capacity is maximised and that the projected capacity margin between demand and supply for the peak period is ensured. EirGrid also operates a range of demand control measures to assist in managing demand at peak times, including working with large commercial users to reduce their demand. This is in the interests of ensuring that domestic consumer supply is maintained.

Security and reliability of electricity supply over the coming years is of paramount importance. The Generation Adequacy Report, recently published by EirGrid, assesses electricity supply and demand between 2008 and 2014. Improved availability of generating capacity and delivery of additional capacity will be key priorities over the period. Two new generation plants at Aghada and Whitegate are scheduled for end 2009, which will deliver capacity of over 800 MW.

The delivery to schedule of the 500 MW east-west interconnector, due by 2012, and the second electricity transmission link with Northern Ireland, due by 2011, will also significantly improve generation adequacy margins. There is also considerable investor interest in providing further generating capacity, both conventional and wind powered. EirGrid's assessment is that, as this investor interest is realised, in conjunction with improved generation availability and the infrastructure developments under way, supply will meet demand.

It is clear however, that energy efficiency and demand side management, including smart metering, will be increasingly critical to ensuring generation adequacy. Energy efficiency is a fundamental part of the Government's strategy to address security of supply as well as energy costs and environmental impact.

Liz McManus (Wicklow, Labour)
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I thank the Minister for his reply. I certainly hope that EirGrid has got it right. There is some concern, however, that we have problems with old plant that have not been invested in. In addition, we have a phenomenon of forced outages that should not be occurring if we had the full, up-to-date modernised infrastructure that we need. It might help if the Minister advised his ministerial colleague, Deputy Ó Cuív, and made him aware of the situation. It would be no harm to do so. The Minister should also advise his other Cabinet colleagues about the importance of ensuring that the North-South interconnector is delivered. We cannot afford to have such infrastructure being unduly delayed at a time when we have clear knowledge that when money was not put into infrastructure and plant difficulties, including failures, arise. There is ongoing concern that we might not be able to meet the need at any point. I am sure the Minister shares that concern and therefore speedy investment is required in infrastructure, whether it is for the interconnector or power stations. I know the Minister is committed to the interconnector but, to put it bluntly, we need to hear from the Fianna Fáil Ministers in this respect.

Eamon Ryan (Dublin South, Green Party)
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I can update the House on some further information which I only received late this afternoon concerning winter demand. The demand peaked yesterday at 5,077 MW, which is expected to be the demand peak. They can be fairly accurate on measuring this because as the holiday season comes in there is a natural reduction.

Liz McManus (Wicklow, Labour)
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It is all those lights.

Eamon Ryan (Dublin South, Green Party)
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The figure is an interesting one in that the earlier projection was that this year's peak would be 5,250 MW, so it is quite significantly below that. It represents a demand growth of less than 1%, which is encouraging. I agree with the Deputy's comments on the problems of forced outages we have had with older generation plant. One of the ways in which we can manage through a tight situation is by energy efficient demand management — that is, getting the same services for using less. This is the first time I have seen where the winter peak was significantly below what was being forecast. A 250 MW increase was expected but less than a quarter of that has appeared to be delivered, which is an encouraging sign.

I support the Deputy's comments on the North-South interconnector. As regards the importance of this grid development for the economy is that increasingly companies seeking investment opportunities——

Liz McManus (Wicklow, Labour)
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The Minister should talk to them first.

Eamon Ryan (Dublin South, Green Party)
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——and locations will require a good network connection to ensure that they have electricity in any given system. There are difficulties for industries locating in the north-west because we do not have a very strong grid. Much of the reason for the development of this grid is to develop renewables North-South as well as providing a better balanced and more robust system, so that if there are outages it can withstand it. It will also support economic developments in areas where that is an issue at present.

Simon Coveney (Cork South Central, Fine Gael)
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Is the Minister concerned by private sector plans to build two 350-MW east-west interconnectors between Wales and Ireland? If the plans go ahead as scheduled, one interconnector will be delivered by January 2010 and the other by January 2011. Is he concerned, however, that that would make redundant plans for EirGrid's interconnector which is in the process of going out to tender? In that case, the latter interconnector may not be needed due to sufficient capacity from two such connectors plus an additional 500 MW one planned by the Government. Does the Minister have a preference for a privately or publicly-owned interconnector?

Eamon Ryan (Dublin South, Green Party)
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We have been examining the issue of an east-west interconnector for a long time, but it has been stuck in the planning process. We are now moving away from that process into the contracting process. I am confident that EirGrid will deliver that interconnector on time, under budget, and in a manner that is of long-term benefit to the State. Many of the complicated issues surrounding it are already being managed. There are difficulties not only on this side, including a foreshore licence and grid connection, but also on the far side in terms of grid connection.

Simon Coveney (Cork South Central, Fine Gael)
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That is not the question though.

Eamon Ryan (Dublin South, Green Party)
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My concentration is firmly set on delivering that east-west interconnector with EirGrid. Further interconnections may well be developed down the line but my job is to help deliver that one and I am confident we can do so. It will be kept within State ownership and will be run on a flexible system that allows us to export and import as is appropriate for the market. That is the key development I am looking forward to delivering.