Richard Bruton (Dublin North Central, Fine Gael)
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Question 49: To ask the Tánaiste and Minister for Finance the extent of the shortfall in his tax projections made at the time the programme for Government was drawn up for the year 2010 as a result of his revision in economic growth; and whether he plans to review the commitments in the programme for Government as a result. [29717/07]

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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In the pre-budget outlook released in mid-October, a technical fiscal position for the years 2008 to 2010 was set out in Table 6. The publication projected tax receipts for 2010 to be €56,520 million on a technical basis, an increase of 6.25% over the 2009 estimate. This was the first time my Department published a tax revenue projection for 2010. Tax revenue of this magnitude is substantial and will enable the Government to continue to make adequate provision for day-to-day public services and investment.

Revised economic and fiscal projections for the period from 2008 to 2010 as well as estimated outturns for 2007 will be provided in the annual budget which I will present to the House on 5 December. These updates will take account of all relevant developments since the publication of the pre-budget outlook.

The programme for Government is an agreed five-year programme between the Government parties in which we set out our guiding economic and budgetary policy principles. In this regard, I remind the Deputy we are fully committed to a responsible fiscal policy. Detailed spending and taxation plans for 2008 will also be presented to the House on budget day. These will represent the first instalment of the Government's delivery of the programme for Government.

Richard Bruton (Dublin North Central, Fine Gael)
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In the manifesto set out by Fianna Fáil, tax revenue for 2010 was projected at €61.4 billion. This manifesto, which committed to major improvements, will have a black hole of €4.9 billion by that year. The total for the improvements committed to is €5.2 billion if the commitment to have a surplus that year is included. Given that the Minister will have less than 10% of the revenue he thought he would for these improvements, what is going to give? Will he revise these commitments or will we pretend the Minister will be able to fund 4,000 extra gardaí, 2,000 extra consultants and 4,000 extra teachers? Will he have a medium-term prospect of what is realistic given the resources available?

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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In our manifesto we set out what we expected from a 4.5% rise in growth per year and the spending priorities we would outline. Since then, we had the election and a programme for Government in which we set out the stall of the Government. In the second half of this year we saw a further slow down. The entire programme for Government and all manifesto commitments based on the assumptions set out are based on prudent and efficient management of the economy. If the suggestion is that I am obligated to proceed regardless of present economic circumstances or forecasts and proceeding with spending plans based on 4.5% growth which will not be achieved next year, I do not believe this is a responsible fiscal position to take.

During the course of the election campaign, I outlined what my priorities would be in the event of a slowdown and I note Fine Gael's attempt to continue to run it. Fianna Fáil documentation on jobs and employment which is available on the website confirm the priorities to maintain capital spending under the development plan and to target tax changes towards those most in need. This has always been my position. The budget will outline the Government's spending plans from 2008 to 2010 and what are our priorities in view of the economic circumstances with which we now contend.

Richard Bruton (Dublin North Central, Fine Gael)
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What are we to make of the programme for Government published in June to which all parties signed up? The Minister will not tell us how much it will cost but I estimate the total will be at least €7.5 billion. The total amount of revenue which in May the Minister stated would underpin it will not be there. Is the programme for Government a work of fiction or a genuine planning document on the basis of which we can expect the Government to develop its ideas? If the Minister now states the money will not be there, let us have a realistic programme and we will consider priorities. Is the Government's priority the NDP or to have 4,000 extra teachers or 2,000 extra gardaí? The public deserves to know and we deserve to have a sensible programme so we know how the money will be used and how scarcities will be prioritised.

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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The programmes put forward in the election by Deputy Bruton's party and other parties with which it wished to coalesce were not specific when it was pointed out they were €1.7 billion above its programme commitments during the second week of the campaign. This was not Fine Gael's fault. It came from the then leader of the Labour Party who promised the sun, moon and stars to everybody.

Every programme is based on assumptions and we set out clearly what were our assumptions.

Richard Bruton (Dublin North Central, Fine Gael)
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The programme for Government was written after the election.

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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I did not interrupt Deputy Bruton. I was quite rightly asked what are my priorities if 4.5% growth is not achieved and I set them out clearly.

Richard Bruton (Dublin North Central, Fine Gael)
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Have they been agreed with the Green Party and the Progressive Democrats?

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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Unlike the Opposition at the time I received credit for the clarity which I applied to answering the question. With regard to the programme for Government, we have established the guiding economic principles for the next five years. We will aim to achieve further significant sustainable growth, operate a responsible fiscal policy, deliver the national development plan——

Richard Bruton (Dublin North Central, Fine Gael)
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That is €184 billion. Will the Government deliver all of this?

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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——and we will invest in increasing the productive capacity of the economy. I intend to implement the capital investment programme in the national development plan——

Richard Bruton (Dublin North Central, Fine Gael)
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Not the current——

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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——with regard to all current spending.

Deputy Bruton's critique is that I will not reduce current spending quickly enough. I do not know where this will leave his figures. I seek to accommodate all day-to-day expenditure in the context of a responsible fiscal policy which will not compromise capital investment because this was the mistake made by past successive Governments when faced with the same dilemma.

Richard Bruton (Dublin North Central, Fine Gael)
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There is a black hole in the programme for Government and the Minister will not face up to it.

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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No, there is not. Every programme for Government, including the one negotiated by Deputy Lowry prior to Deputy Bruton's brother becoming Taoiseach, has a covering budgetary context in which it is achieved. This is no different in this programme for Government. A programme would be meaningless if it did not have such a covering budgetary parameter which confirms what will be done in the context of the growth the Government seeks to achieve. Without this, Deputy Bruton's contentions are meaningless. It is the budgetary context——

Richard Bruton (Dublin North Central, Fine Gael)
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The programme for Government is a work of fiction.

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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The only fiction Deputy Bruton engaged in was that in which he engaged himself.