Simon Coveney (Cork South Central, Fine Gael)
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Question 4: To ask the Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources if, following comments from a spokesperson from EirGrid, he is satisfied that demand for electricity will not outstrip supply and cause blackouts in winter 2007; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [29141/07]

Eamon Ryan (Dublin South, Green Party)
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The Government is committed to ensuring that electricity supply consistently meets the needs of Irish consumers and business. My Department liaises closely with the Commission for Energy Regulation, CER, which has key functions in security of electricity supply, and with EirGrid as the independent transmission system operator. Reporting to the CER, EirGrid has responsibility for managing generation adequacy and monitoring generation capacity. EirGrid produces an annual winter outlook report, which provides a rigorous analysis of Ireland's electricity generation capacity to meet expected demand over the peak winter months.

The 2007 winter outlook report was published by EirGrid last August. Based on its analysis and on detailed contact with each of the power generators, EirGrid forecasts that electricity generating capacity will be sufficient to meet demand this winter. EirGrid has indicated that developments related to potential outages could lead to reduced capacity margins at times during the winter peak period. However, it remains EirGrid's assessment that there will be sufficient capacity on the system to ensure security of electricity supply this winter.

The report assumes a peak demand this winter of 5,250 MW. This compares with the peak demand last winter of 5,035 MW. EirGrid calculates that generating capacity of 5,930 MW will be available. This includes the new 400 MW facility at Huntstown, which is now in service. This compares well with a peak generating capacity of 5,836 MW last year. It is also expected that connected wind capacity will reach 900-1,000 MW by year end. This is a significant and welcome increase of more than 25% of installed wind capacity since the start of the year.

As with any power generation system, it is not possible to give definitive guarantees that generation adequacy will always be maintained. By their nature, high-level forced outages on the system cannot be predicted. Plant outage, whether planned or unforeseen, must at all times be critically managed to maintain security of supply. EirGrid operates a range of demand control measures to assist in managing demand at peak times.

Additional information not given on the floor of the House.

These include reducing demand by agreement with large users in the interests of ensuring domestic customer supply is maintained.

Our generating capacity must ensure an adequate margin between electricity supply and demand. Medium term capacity will be enhanced with the power generation plants under construction as well as the new electricity interconnectors scheduled for 2011, North-South, and 2012, East-West. The provision of new flexible plant and the continued strong growth in wind and other renewable energy is critical in that context. Key imperatives for electricity supply and demand are energy efficiency and a diverse fuel mix. Radically improving energy efficiency and achieving the ambitious renewable energy target set by the Government will significantly enhance security of supply and ensure that demand itself is more sustainable.

Simon Coveney (Cork South Central, Fine Gael)
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I thank the Minister for his reply and I welcome the increased output from wind generation, which is moving towards 1,000 MW. The fact that the concern comes from EirGrid means we have been given fair warning that there is a significant likelihood of power cuts this winter. Last December Ireland reached a record usage of more than 5,000 MW. This year it will increase by 2-3%. Does the Minister agree that while we have a maximum generation capacity of just over 6,000 MW, for the majority of the time we operate at approximately 78% output, or 4,800 MW, which is significantly short of the output we need? Does the key concern not relate to the three plants the ESB is required to decommission and therefore are not investing in and upgrading, which increases the likelihood of outages from those plants? Is it not a key concern that the ESB is required to close plants when there is high demand pressure? Must not the overriding priority be security of supply, even more than pricing and competitiveness?

Eamon Ryan (Dublin South, Green Party)
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I agree that supply security is a crucial consideration in our energy policy and relates to the plant we have and the fuel mix we use in future. We must be careful not to generate an over-reliance on gas or any other fuel supply in our mix. The Deputy is correct that there are difficulties around the reliability of older plants such as the three to which he referred. The problem is related to the age of the plants — in some cases more than 50 years — not to any policy decisions on their future ownership or operations.

There have been key developments in securing supply in the short to medium term. The development of new power plants is on line for the next two or three years as Bórd Gáis and the ESB are contracting new large power stations. The response in renewable energy is only a fraction of the amount we need to develop. Rather than celebrating 1,000 MW of wind power we must plan for a multiple of that and arrange our planning and other systems to provide for that power source. Development must be delivered in a timely fashion. I hope Deputy Coveney ensures Fine Gael proves useful in ensuring the proper, swift and safe development of infrastructure such as interconnectors north-south and east-west, in the national interest. These will provide a valuable additional security of supply to cope with a difficult situation in which our demand for electricity is growing significantly.

Simon Coveney (Cork South Central, Fine Gael)
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Fine Gael will be responsible. The Minister knows I have pushed the interconnector from this side of the House for six or seven years. It is disingenuous of him to suggest otherwise.

Johnny Brady (Meath West, Fianna Fail)
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The Deputy must ask a question.

Simon Coveney (Cork South Central, Fine Gael)
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We do not want answers on the medium and long term. The question refers to this winter. Can the Minister assure businesses and households that there will be no power outages this winter?

Eamon Ryan (Dublin South, Green Party)
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The EirGrid report, which is the proper, professional forecasting method, suggests we should have proper supply. However it is tight and requires all of us to be careful in our use of energy, particularly during peak times, to ensure supply meets demand.

Simon Coveney (Cork South Central, Fine Gael)
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Then it is conditional.