Edward Timmins (Wicklow, Fine Gael)

I want to focus on a number of aspects of the Ukraine war and how it is so important to us here in Ireland. I want to speak first about the massive numbers who have died on both sides of the conflict. It is estimated that between 200,000 and 500,000 people have died on the Russian side and about half that on the Ukrainian side. This is a staggering number. It is happening in a European country that borders several EU countries. For the life of me I cannot understand why it is barely spoken about here nor mentioned in our main media outlets. Are the lives of hundreds of thousands of young men not important?

Second, I want to raise the issue of missing children. Latest reports from experts at Yale University estimate that as many as 35,000 children may be held in Russia and its occupied territories. There is a network of 43 Russian facilities to which Ukrainian children have been moved since February 2022. It is thought that many have been sent to military camps or foster care or even adopted by Russian families. The Yale team has been able to establish the identities of thousands of children. It is likely the largest child abduction in war since the Second World War.

Third, I want to talk about Ireland taking in people from Ukraine. Ireland has taken in more than 100,000 refugees from Ukraine. We have taken in by far the most in western Europe per capita and more in absolute numbers than France. This is commendable. However, I wonder whether we have really helped Ukraine by attracting some people who may have stayed. For example, in Ukraine businesses already crippled by blackouts and Russian missiles are suffering from a severe labour shortage. Most will never return.

Fourth, I want to discuss the financing of Ukraine. Unless something changes, Ukraine is expected to have no money at the end of next February. In February of this year, after Mr. Trump entered the White House, monthly American financial allocations to Ukraine stopped. Ukraine has now borrowed as much as it can. It has an official fiscal deficit of about one fifth of GDP. Public debt has doubled as a share of GDP since before the war to about 110%. Ukraine cannot borrow any more. Its last hope is Europe. The annual war effort requires €100 billion, which is equal to about half of Ukraine's GDP. Europe's NATO members need to step up and fund Ukraine. It would go a long way to ensuring Europe's independence from the US. The alternative would be for Ukraine to lose the war, making Russia an even bigger threat. Spread across all NATO members, this is manageable. Europe has no choice. It also has a chance to speed up Europe's effort to establish its military and financial independence from America.

Europe’s economy is ten times the size of Russia’s. Russia’s initial war boom has now given way to stagflation, with growth at almost zero, labour shortages, inflation of 8% and interest rates of 16.5%. Another few years of this would probably trigger an economic and banking crisis in Russia. If Europe can demonstrate to Russia that it will underwrite the war for at least that long, Russia may think differently. Europe needs to remain united in the face of Russia’s aggression. Ukraine is too big to fail.

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