Pearse Doherty (Donegal, Sinn Fein) | Oireachtas source

Given that the ESRI and the Department of Finance have worked out these models, I put it to the Minister that we should very quickly have information on the 20% scenario outlined by the Trump Administration last night. The analysis done by the ESRI and the Department of Finance examined the potential impact of a US Administration tariff and gave us the numbers for it. They also looked at the impact of countermeasures from Europe. These are still unknown, but different scenarios were assumed. In all circumstances, in the context of jobs, public finances, tax, the economy and businesses, it was shown that countermeasures from the European Union would have a significant impact on Ireland.

On modified domestic demand, the analysis carried out was based on a 25% tariff. The Minister referred to it decreasing by 1% to 2% from the baseline. Am I right in saying that we would still see growth right throughout the four-year period that has been assessed? In other words, modified domestic demand and GDP will continue to grow in all scenarios. Indeed, employment would also continue to grow, despite it being reduction from what would be the case in a non-tariff scenario.

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