Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

Before I get into the important specifics the Deputy raised, I will reflect on the announcements relating to the tariffs introduced by the Trump Administration. Free trade has been at the centre of the Irish and European economies for many decades. However, it is clear that the global economic landscape has changed. Tariffs are being imposed in respect of trade into the United States at a level that is historically high. We are moving into a trading and economic world that will change. This will have consequences for the Irish economy and the global economy.

To better calibrate how we respond to these unprecedented challenges, we must first aim to understand their potential impact. To that end, my Department and the ESRI recently published an analytical paper where several tariff scenarios were modelled. The analysis showed that modified domestic demand, which is the most meaningful way of measuring our economy from a jobs and income point of view, would be 1% to 2% below its non-tariff baseline over the medium term, depending on the extent of tariffs.

The potential impact on GDP is greater, between 2.5% and almost 4%, although changes in GDP have less impact on the ground. From an employment perspective, we assume it would be around 2% to 3% lower compared with the non-tariff baseline. In that context, we are talking about 55,000 to 85,000 jobs that either might not be created or could be lost or affected due to these measures.

To go back to Deputy Doherty's specific question, given that the position relating to tariffs only became clear last night, the global response is not yet clear. What we will do is begin modelling in respect of what we know. The Government will aim to publish that modelling in the annual progress report that is due to take the place of the stability programme update. We are aiming to do that in the coming weeks.

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