Leo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

The ESRI report published this morning is a reminder of the very stark consequences that Brexit will have for Ireland and the Irish economy. It confirms many things that we knew already. Brexit will be bad for Ireland in any scenario. There is no such thing as a good Brexit for Ireland. While there may be opportunities, there will certainly be more downsides than upsides. It confirms again that a deal is better than no deal, and a managed no-deal situation would be better than a disorderly no-deal situation. It also shows that the economy will continue to grow. It will not be as fast as we anticipate it will grow in the event of a deal but it will continue to grow. We will not go into recession, at least according to the ESRI. There will continue to be an increase in the number of jobs. There will be more jobs, just not as many extra jobs as we would have in the event of a deal. Incomes will continue to rise, just not as fast as they would rise in the event of a deal. Public finances would deteriorate, but not to the extent that we witnessed ten years ago. We would move from a small surplus into a small deficit.

Having said that, we should not underestimate how serious a no-deal Brexit could be for some very vulnerable sectors in our economy, especially the agrifood sector, tourism and small exporters whose only market is the UK. That is where we are most exposed and they will need the most support should we end up in a no-deal scenario in a few weeks. I heard Deputy Martin say a moment ago that we should avoid no deal at all costs. I am not entirely sure what he means by "at all costs" or what price Fianna Fáil would be willing to pay to avoid no deal. I know at the start of Brexit his party conference voted in favour of gantries and hard border measures between North and South. Fianna Fáil's spokesperson on "Morning Ireland" refused to rule out-----

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