Micheál Martin (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail) | Oireachtas source

The report published by the Economic and Social Research Institute, ESRI, this morning is a stark reminder of the negative impact of Brexit on the Irish economy, irrespective of the kind of Brexit that occurs. There is no such thing as a good Brexit. It will be negative for the economy, trade, jobs, households, the labour market and so on. The study's analysis of a no-deal, or disorderly, Brexit is particularly stark and significantly more negative than that of previous reports. Some 80,000 jobs will be lost in the event of a disorderly Brexit and there will be a severe impact on trade, notwithstanding whatever positive diversion we receive from foreign direct investment. The overall impact will be negative and damaging to Ireland, while a no-deal Brexit, in particular, will affect firms' capacity to trade, the labour market, the public finances, the household sector and the broader economy.

That underlines a reminder to politicians on all sides across Europe, in the United Kingdom and in Ireland that a no-deal scenario must be avoided if at all possible. I am not sure if that is the view of everybody across Europe or some of our friends in the United Kingdom. I got a sense at the European summit last week that some people were saying that they had had enough of this, that they should get rid of it and move on to the next business. It is not the next business for the 80,000 people who would lose their jobs or the livelihoods and companies that will be damaged. There has to be a reassertion of the imperative to avoid a no-deal Brexit.

I believe President Macron asked the Taoiseach what will happen if there is a no-deal Brexit. He asked the Taoiseach if Ireland would be fine, which is probably the overstatement of the week, to which the Taoiseach replied that we can cope. This has not been denied. I would like an explanation of how the 80,000 people who will lose their jobs will cope. We should take every opportunity to point out to our European colleagues that it needs a medium-term extension. There should be no equivocation about the necessity for one.

I believe Chancellor Angela Merkel asked the Taoiseach about the Border question. It has been revealed that the Commission is in talks with the Irish Government about a no-deal scenario and what would happen at the Border. It says that if there is no deal, there is no backstop, and there will be checks at the Border and, in essence, there will be a Border. The precise form and nature of the checks, how they will take place, and at what distance is being discussed. I think the Taoiseach said it is preliminary and there is a rough plan. Does the Taoiseach not think it is time for him to be upfront and transparent with the Dáil and public about the impact of a no-deal scenario on the Border question? What will happen at the Border? What is the nature of the discussions under way between the Commission and the Government? Will the Taoiseach outline details of the type of arrangements being discussed in the context of a no-deal scenario?

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