Enda Kenny (Mayo, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

The difficulties in this regard arise from the unrealistic non-ETS emissions reduction target set for 2020, which is minus 20% compared with 2005 levels. That is unattainable and unaffordable in the current fiscal environment. We have, in effect, lost ten years of investment capacity and, on current projections, are likely only to reach a reduction of minus 5% to minus 8% below 2005 levels by 2020. The mismatch between our assessment of Ireland's cost-efficient emissions reduction capacity, a maximum of minus 14% by 2030, and the possible upper target of minus 37% that might be set for us, based on the figures given to other countries and under a GDP capita distribution, would result in cumulative non-compliance costs of approximately €5.3 billion by 2030. That is the equivalent of 0.3% of GDP. We need to have a very detailed discussion about setting out realistic and achievable targets for the country. If that is not done, the projected scale of fines or charges would be way beyond our remit.

We have an active Government-funded afforestation programme, with an estimated cumulative spend of some €3.5 billion between now and 2030, which will deliver potential to achieve carbon neutrality among many other benefits. It is important that Ireland's land-based emissions are seen in the light of this and the associated credits that come from it are counted towards our target.

I take the Deputy's point on fossil fuels. The increase in the number of electric vehicles will be very significant in the time ahead. The programme for the conversion and use of heavy transport vehicles, including lorries, buses and trains, is being accelerated. Of course, it would be wonderful to see all of these vehicles converted overnight to emissions-free capacity, but that is not how it is done. The Minister for the Environment, Community and Local Government, Deputy Alan Kelly, is in discussions with the Minister for Transport, Tourism and Sport, Deputy Paschal Donohue, and a detailed analysis of these matters is being undertaken.

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