Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)

The simple answer is "Yes". I did not say I anticipated a deficit of 9.1%. What I said was that if one had a model where one put in a lower growth, one would come out with a projection and one could do the sums that way. However, there are many other variables, which I pointed out. Both the troika and the Department of Finance believe that 8.6% is still an achievable target.

I agree that matters are very uncertain. Looking, for example, at the forecasts made by the Department during 2011, one can see that in April we forecasted growth of 2.5%, which was mid-way in the estimates of growth at the time. In early autumn, we pulled back that forecast to 1.5% or 1.6% and by budget day we pulled it back to 1.3%. These were all prudent positions given the data available at the time. I foresee a further pull-back when the forecasts are revisited in April. However, there are margins and buffers built into the budgetary position which, despite the pull-back in growth figures, will allow us to reach the deficit target of 8.6%.

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