Michael McGrath (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail)

We can all agree that growth is central to bringing us out of our economic difficulties and that forecasting is an imprecise science. However, five different bodies have downgraded Irish growth predictions since the beginning of this year. These range from Davy's saying growth will be 0.4%, Goodbody's 0.7%, ESRI 0.9%, the troika 0.5% and NCB 0.3%. The Department's current forecast is 1.3%. The issue is not the achievement of the fiscal target but, to take up the point raised by Deputy Boyd Barrett, the risk that if the fiscal target looks like it is slipping because of the growth projection, we will be forced to introduce additional fiscal measures during the year. That is a risk we all want to avoid.

I welcome the Minister's comments with regard to our starting position in 2012, which is somewhat better than anticipated. This gives some welcome headroom on the fiscal side for 2012. However, the downgrade of the Irish growth forecast by all of the bodies mentioned is a major concern. The medium forecast is now only 0.5%. The Minister's medium term fiscal statement points out that if growth is 1% less than anticipated by Government - then 1.6% - the outturn would be a deficit of 9.1%. Based on the data available to him at this point, is the Minister satisfied we will be in a position to achieve the overall target without additional measures beyond what was announced in the budget in December?

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