Billy Timmins (Wicklow, Fine Gael)

I support the motion before the House.

Nothing epitomises the plight of the people of Zimbabwe more than the introduction last week of two new bank notes — a Z$100 million note and a Z$250 million note. Inflation is now running at over 150,000% and rising by about 120% every month. The IMF says that Zimbabwe suffers the highest rate of inflation in the world. A loaf of bread now costs about Z$80 million while a bunch of five bananas costs close to Z$100 million. The price of chicken rose more than 236,000% to Z$15 million a kilogram between January 2007 and January 2008. Slower increases in prices of sugar, tea and other basics bring down the average inflation rate to around 150,000%.

This is ironic as well as tragic as Zimbabwe, a former regional breadbasket, is facing acute shortages of food, hard currency, petrol and most basic goods. Economic meltdown began with disruptions to the agriculture-based economy after the seizures of thousands of white-owned commercial farms began in 2000, accompanied by political violence and turmoil. Gross domestic product in Zimbabwe fell from about US$200 per head in 1996 to about US$9 per head last year. This is a shocking statistic.

In the last three weeks, the value of the Zimbabwe dollar has gone from 45 million or so to the US$, to around 120 million. Approximately two thirds of the population face food shortages. The situation is now extremely serious and the immediate prospects of recovery are virtually zero without radical political change.

Under other circumstances, Zimbabwe would have one of the most diverse and best-performing economies on the African continent. It is believed that 5 million Zimbabweans, mostly much-needed professionals and the young, have left the country. An estimated 3 million have sought refuge in South Africa, half of whom are illegal immigrants who face deportation daily. Tens of thousands of Zimbabwean citizens inhabit squatter camps, driven there from their homes by the so-called "Youth Militia", President Mugabe's thugs who move across the country in packs to terrorise people, often for little more than laughs.

Zimbabwe's economy remains heavily dependent on South Africa. The South Africans have been more sympathetic to the Zimbabwean Government than most of the international community. All the major donors in Europe and North America have now suspended grants and loans to Zimbabwe, further depressing economic prospects. The IMF has expelled Zimbabwe, as has the Commonwealth, which was formerly a valuable source of aid.

Although Zimbabwe is a member of the Southern African Development Community and has signed up to the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, these are of marginal assistance in current circumstances. Zimbabwe's once-thriving trade patterns have been all but wrecked as the country has become isolated internationally.

According to the Zimbabwe Association of Doctors for Human Rights, ZADHR, there has been a dramatic increase in violence since the beginning of May, which is on such a large scale that is impossible to document the number of victims. Violence ranges from inflicting head injuries and severe soft tissue damage — particularly in sensitive areas of the body — to beating up pregnant women. One young breast-feeding mother had bilateral fractures of both hands and was unable to hold her baby to feed it. Many of the victims, especially in the rural areas, are not even being treated, as they have no access to health centres or are being denied treatment as health centre staff have been intimidated by specific state instructions to not treat victims of violence. Health workers are exhausted trying to deal with dwindling supplies and their own emotional trauma from Government threats. Much of the violence has been aimed directly against the opposition party or anyone in districts that voted predominantly for the opposition.

In a BBC news report from rural Zimbabwe last week, Orla Guerin reported as follows:

At a remote homestead in an opposition stronghold, village elders described the command structure in their area . . . They told us the operation was run by officials from the ruling Zanu-PF party, and so-called war veterans, with the help of a senior army officer. The intimidation began at the top, with local chiefs, who then passed instructions down to village elders. 'The chief's headman told us the message from Zanu was go and tell the people to vote for the president,' a village elder said. 'If you don't, you will see what will happen to you.' This man knows only too well what to expect come election time. He says his home was torched and his wife was beaten back in 2002. At meetings called by the ruling party and its henchmen, explicit threats were made, according to an opposition councillor. 'They told us that if President Mugabe lost in the run-off, there would be war,' he said. 'They said what happened during the war of liberation would happen again. There would be a second round of that.'

This is the mad world of Mugabe but Zimbabwe is a country that is slipping down the international news agenda. The world's media has moved on to the terrible natural disasters in China and Burma and I wish to take this opportunity to extend my sympathy to the Chinese authorities and people for the terrible tragedy that has taken place in that country.

There is a danger that the political crisis in Zimbabwe could become a footnote to world affairs, a situation that would greatly please President Mugabe and his regime. We must all work together to keep international pressure on the Harare regime. The latest news bulletins from Zimbabwe suggest that the second round of the country's presidential election has again been deferred, this time to 31 July. The international community expected the run-off election between Mr. Robert Mugabe and Mr. Morgan Tsvangirai to take place on 23 May. The omens for a successful election are not good. The ruling Zanu-PF party continues to refuse to allow international observers to oversee the run-off poll. Opposition candidate, Mr. Morgan Tsvangirai, has said he will only stand if international observers and media are given full access to ensure the vote is free and fair. The Zanu-PF spokesman says that Mr. Tsvangirai is free to return to Zimbabwe but he would not rule out the possibility that he might be arrested.

Mr. Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change, MDC, party officials are complaining of intimidation and say that as many as 25 MDC activists have been murdered since the first round of voting. The Roman Catholic Church in Zimbabwe has called for the African Union and the United Nations to supervise a presidential run-off election in that troubled country. In a statement issued ten days ago, the church said Zimbabwe's electoral commission is neither neutral nor trustworthy. All the while Zimbabwe is a political limbo and its people continue to suffer away from the eyes of the world's media.

We all know that the solution to the political, economic and social crisis lies in free and fair elections, monitored by the international community. However, this is akin to the old adage of the mouse deciding to tie a bell about the cat's neck. Nobody can force President Mugabe to behave in a democratic or even reasonable manner. One thing is certain; the resolution to this crisis should and must be regional. There should be African solutions to African problems. It is regrettable but western sanctions have proven to be largely symbolic and British and American condemnations of President Robert Mugabe are, if anything, counter-productive because they help him claim he is the victim of neocolonial ambitions. This is his main election tool.

However, the international community, through the United Nations, must support the mediation efforts by the Southern African Development Community, SADC. At the same time we must accept that the SADC initiative is fragile and the organisation is beset by internal differences over how much pressure to exert to press Mugabe to retire. SADC needs to resolve these differences and this is all the more reason the international community should give SADC its full support.

It is difficult to understand why President Mbeki of South Africa has so far failed to bring Mugabe to his senses. Mr. Mbeki has long excelled in diplomacy and it is his main strength. He was called on by Africans to head the effort that led to the departure of foreign troops from the Democratic Republic of Congo and to take the lead in Burundi to defuse the threat of a round of Rwandan-style genocide in that country. Not least, it was Mbeki who was chosen by the African National Congress to lead negotiations with the apartheid government that resulted in the release of political prisoners, the return of the exiles and the opening of final talks that led to the relatively peaceful South African miracle to bring full democracy to his country. To date, however, he has failed with respect to Zimbabwe.

An internal solution could be possible. SADC, supported by the UN, must be allowed to monitor the holding of a presidential run-off between Morgan Tsvangirai and Robert Mugabe to break the 29 March electoral deadlock and facilitate a winner-takes-all outcome. Such a run-off is the most straightforward as it is a necessary step in terms of the Zimbabwean Electoral Act. Resolutions on the role of the United Nations in enhancing the effectiveness of the principle of fair and genuine elections and the promotion of democratisation have consistently been passed, almost unanimously, at the UN General Assembly. These resolutions deal with how the United Nations Development Programme helps countries conduct their electoral process. Assistance is granted only on request from a sovereign state and care is taken to ensure there is no encroachment on national sovereignty.

Fine Gael wants Ireland to take a lead role in developing these resolutions to give a more authoritative role to the electoral assistance division of the United Nations. This can only be done through dialogue and consultation. Ireland is in an ideal position to be of assistance as we have neither colonial baggage nor economic interest in the regions requiring assistance.

I do not support Mr. Tsvangirai's often suggested boycott of the run-off under the claim that he won the first round on 29 March. The consequence would be to hand the presidency to the embattled Mugabe on a golden electoral platter. Another solution worth exploring is a negotiated 18 or 24-month transitional government to break not just the electoral stalemate, but also to resolve the cancerous political, economic and constitutional crisis that has dogged Zimbabwe since independence and particularly in the past decade. In the event of transitional arrangements, Ireland should divert some of its €900 million aid package to Zimbabwe and make members of the rapid response corps available if required. I suggest the Minister should look at beefing up that corps because it will be called upon quite frequently in the months and years ahead. In addition, we must face up to the reality that one presidential election after 28 years of one-party, one-man rule will not necessarily provide an instant cure for Zimbabwe's ills. Mugabe's cronies in the judiciary, civil service and the army will almost certainly set about destabilising the democratic process and effectively make the country ungovernable.

As the Northern Ireland peace process demonstrated, democracy and the rule of law can only truly flourish when extreme ends of the political spectrum are brought into the centre. I agree with the sentiments outlined by the Minister that we should not be subject to blackmail and that we cannot go easy on this regime. However, people in Mugabe's regime must realise at this stage that the game is up and they may be looking for some way out of the situation. Influential members of the ruling Zanu-PF party in Zimbabwe should be assured that a rescue package would be put in place to shore up the shattered economy. I support the idea of relaxing sanctions against individuals within Zanu-PF who show an open and genuine commitment to engage in power-sharing talks and join forces to restore democratic governance. We must send the message that if they change their ways we would be willing to consider giving assistance and that they will not be left in isolation. That hope must be extended to them. There will be a need for a truth and reconciliation commission for black Zimbabweans along the lines of the initiative set up in post-apartheid South Africa.

The situation is not dissimilar to the situation in Burma for which I outlined the need for contingency plans. I agree with and support the concept referred to by Deputy Higgins and the Minister that national sovereignty should not be supreme when dealing with humanitarian issues. I acknowledge that there is a difference of opinion between the Government and Fine Gael with regard to the triple lock mechanism. While I know he is not going that far, I am delighted to hear Deputy Higgins enunciate that the concept of the flawed system in the United Nations should not be permitted to prevent humanitarian aid being delivered to people. The electoral commission in Zimbabwe was set up under the auspices of the United Nations in 1989.

On approximately 400 occasions, more than 100 states have requested assistance in monitoring elections. This assistance must be requested by the sovereign state. Over the years only one state abstained on this resolution. That UN policy must be strengthened so that new rules and regulations are not needed for each election. Ireland is in a position to take a lead in this regard as we have no colonial baggage and we have gone through the peace process in Northern Ireland. We could help strengthen this process so there is no need to watch election after election and be unsure as to the result.

Fine Gael wholeheartedly supports this motion. I note several Deputies who have an interest in this subject, including the newly-appointed Minister of State, Deputy Barry Andrews, and the Leas-Cheann Comhairle, Deputy Brendan Howlin. Mr. Mugabe's days are numbered and hopefully they will come to an end sooner rather than later, but we must look at putting in place an assistance model for the people of Zimbabwe to help restore them to where they were a few decades ago.

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