Dr. Robert Kelly:

I thank the Deputy for her questions. I will start and then, perhaps, Dr. O'Brien will come in.

Regarding a potential downturn in the US economy, the reality is these are global footprinted firms. If there were to be a downturn in the US economy, they would feel some impact, but they also export globally. Regarding the question as to whether a US downturn would necessarily trigger a change in potential trade policy, I cannot answer that. It may do. The reality is, besides a downturn, there is the potential for other policies within the US to change that would, given the corporate structure that multinational enterprises have here, mean some of the excess corporation tax could be under sudden-stop conditions. It is not necessarily going to be caused by a downturn in the US, there are also potential policy changes they might take. Some of the signals so far, such as the base erosion and profit shifting, BEPS. process, and some of what was agreed at the G7 summit during the summer regarding how profits are treated, all speaks to some resilience in the system for the way US corporates structure themselves here. This is what we point to in terms of where we are right now and the potential vulnerability to sudden changes in decisions. We are talking about a small number of corporates here. Corporates themselves can suddenly decide to put their European base in a different European country. It could be the right decision for them. That is what we are vulnerable to with this extreme concentration we have in corporation receipts. To the point Deputy Timmins raised, that is why we are advocating for a broader tax base.

Regarding diversification, I completely agree with Deputy Devine. We focus so much on EU in terms of diversification because trade frictions are naturally lower with the EU. We do not have tariff regimes. Rerouting trade into the EU could be easier, because it is a more open and integrated market for us. There are small frictions. They could be cultural or small things that, if Irish producers are going to compete in the European markets, we need to help them with. State agencies like Enterprise Ireland are very effective at this with their offices, but we really do see that as a potential solution. When we think about growth globally, south-east Asia is where a lot of the growth will continue to happen. Targeting those markets and growing a presence there definitely makes sense. It is just about the relative complexity of exporting a good to south-east Asia versus the European Union. It is a bigger challenge for firms. Then there are other trade agreements the EU provides. Take CETA, relating to Canada, for example. There are potential trading lines there for Irish products. I am not saying it is only the EU, but according to the data, we are probably a little bit underrepresented in terms of how much we export to the EU and maybe that is the easiest one for us to think about developing.