Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Tuesday, 8 July 2025
Committee on Budgetary Oversight
Engagement with the Central Bank of Ireland
2:00 am
Mr. Vasileios Madouros:
On tariffs, I do not have much more to say. We outlined some of the different scenarios we have in the quarterly bulletin. These are based on specific assumptions about where tariffs might be and we still do not know whether they will be within that range or what the precise constellation of tariffs will be. Perhaps a broader point is that tariffs are one dimension, but there are broader aspects of economic policy and certainty or economic policy shifts by the US Administration that might have implications globally, including in Ireland. It is important to bear in mind that we are basically starting from a good position but the outlook is genuinely uncertain.
We have covered quite a lot about infrastructure. My colleagues might like to add to any of the points, but the one additional point I will add linking it to the macro situation is that fiscal policy will have to respond to what happens to the economy. That is important. If the economy evolves in line with the centre of expectation we outlined in the quarterly bulletin, prioritising investment will be important, but there will be difficult choices to be made in offsetting measures, whether it is current spending or taxes, because the economy is at capacity. It is important that we do not, in aggregate, add additional demands on an economy that is operating at capacity.
If the economy evolves on a different path and there is more of a slow down than expected, again fiscal policy will need to respond and act to support the broader economy, that is operate counter cyclically. I will hand over to my colleague.