Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 1 July 2025

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Fiscal Assessment Report: Engagement with the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

2:00 am

Mr. Seamus Coffey:

There is no doubt we would agree with the view there are certainly difficulties out there. The mandate we have is not necessarily looking at those specific measures. This is about looking at the overall impact. It is ultimately down to the political system to choose how it uses the resources. As my colleague Mr. Conroy said, we view it as being about choices. It is one thing when you find yourself in a position where the economy is performing very well. We have very high rates of employment that generate a lot of income tax revenue and other sources of tax revenue. We have very low rates of unemployment, which reduce the social welfare spending and of course, we have these surging corporation tax receipts.

This means those choices may not be as evident and if we were to rely on the economy remaining at the very high level it is now - which will not persist as we are at a very high point in the upward cycle - if we were to rely on these very concentrated and significant corporation tax revenues and they were to downturn, some of the measures spoken about, if introduced or changed, might be reversed. We are looking for things to be in a stable and sustainable fashion to highlight these risks. There is no doubt both the economy and public finances are in a strong position, at least at a headline level. That strong position is down to those two factors, namely, where the economy is and those surging corporation tax receipts.

We can talk about specific measures but from our perspective, it is up to looking at the overall position. Yes, the Government does have scope to do things. A lot of the costs are built in because of demographics and the standstill scenario of the cost of doing what we are doing now, however, there is some capacity to do additional things. Here, however, choices must be made. We do not have the resources to cut taxes, keep ramping up current spending and hugely increase capital spending. Yes, you can look at particular measures but it is really down to the political process to choose which ones are at the top and what is the priority. If it is some of those measures, absolutely go for them but do not expect to be able to do everything.