Mr. Seamus Coffey:

It is maybe the largest individual component of Exchequer spending, once the Social Insurance Fund is added in. We see things being relatively well managed or well predicted for lots of areas, when it comes to the number of OAPs, the number on various payments and the unemployment rate being stable. In the main, we do not necessarily see significant overruns when it comes to social welfare, unlike other areas. We seem to be able to factor in the demographics and the demand in one key large area.

One thing that happens every year is Christmas. Every year, the Government gives a double payment for social welfare at Christmas time, which is absolutely fine, but does not put it into the budget figures. The cost is €300 million to €400 million every year. It is done every year, yet we assess a budget that does not include it. I am pretty sure we will get an announcement from the Minister for Social Protection over the coming weeks that the payment will be made again this year, but even up to now it is not in the figures.