Dr. Conor O'Toole:

It is not often economists agree on things. Looking at these numbers, it certainly seems we are talking in the same ballpark. When we are undertaking short-term forecasts, particularly on the housing side, there is always a huge amount of uncertainty. As Dr. Kelly said, there is a bunch of factors we take into consideration, including the general level of activity in the overall economy and how it is performing and factors on the cost side. Then we typically look at the pass-through from the planning stage into the commencement phase and then into the completions phase. Historically, before the Covid pandemic, we got a really great forecast of completions from commencements. It was a very stable relationship. Since the Covid period, that relationship has kind of broken down and is not as accurate for forecasting purposes.

We had a slowdown last year to 30,000 units but then a big spike in commencements, which are up to nearly 70,000. Typically, they would come online between nine months and two years after commencement. The question for us then is what component of that big increase is due to the policy changes such as bringing forward activity from this year and what is the underlying-----