Dr. Robert Kelly:

I thank the Deputy for his question. To give a quick clarification, the 35,000 figure is related to 2027. The 2026 figure would be closer to 35,000, at approximately 37,500, from memory, or in that range. We have found predicting the level of completions in the housing market quite difficult over the past couple of quarters, the main reason being we have seen quite a large increase in commencements due in part to policy interventions. We undertook an analysis approximately a year ago that talked about the typical transfer across in terms of numbers. It has not played out as we expected.

There have been a number of cases where we have had downward revisions that are not very significant but are in the couple of thousands for each year, and we have done that straight through. Commencements are one of the two big factors. The second is momentum, and the reality is momentum is also slowing. Both of those factors dictate where we see the housing figures going. The reason we are slightly above last year's rate this year is the large block of commencements and how they might pass through. In reality, the most recent forecast did not include those first-quarter numbers. There are downward pressures on that forecast for the next round.