Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 23 October 2024

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Ireland's Medium-Term Fiscal and Structural Plan: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

5:30 pm

Photo of Rose Conway-WalshRose Conway-Walsh (Mayo, Sinn Fein)
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Apologies for the vote. My first question refers to an endorsement IFAC provided for the economic projections which were released alongside budget 2025. In the letter of endorsement on the macroeconomic projections, IFAC stated that one of the three elements of the basis for its approach is a review of the Department's past forecasts to look for errors and systematic bias. Is it fair to say that the Department systematically produces conservative macroeconomic forecasts? Excluding 2020, how many times has the Department overestimated GNI* or tax revenue in the past five or six years? I only saw one example when reviewing that. Could the witnesses speak to those two things, the conservatism and overestimation?