Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 9 October 2024

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach

Engagement with the Central Bank of Ireland

1:30 pm

Mr. Gabriel Makhlouf:

Yes. The Deputy mentioned corporation tax, but there is a fairly significant income tax dimension to it as well. A lot of corporation tax is paid by corporates that employ a lot of people who pay a lot of income tax. On the tax side, the concentration we have on those multinationals, which we have spoken about before, is a structural vulnerability in Ireland. That remains an issue. In the past I have said that the Government should be looking to reduce its vulnerability in two ways in particular. First, it should put surplus corporation tax away in a fund. The Government is setting up, or has set up, two funds which I have welcomed. Second, the set of proposals made by the Commission on Taxation and Welfare to broaden the tax system or tax base are worthy of consideration again. I suggest one needs to consider those sorts of issues. Generally speaking, one of the biggest risks that we worry about at the ECB and here at the Central Bank is geopolitical risk, which comes in many forms. Geopolitical risk stems from the fact that we have had for quite a number of years a fragmentation of the global trading system, which is not working in the way we would want. The rules-based system, which is governed by internationally agreed rules and overseen by the World Trade Organization, has been breaking down probably for the past seven or eight years.

Increasingly, we are seeing the use of tariffs, for example, by various countries to protect their own industry or for other political reasons. These risks are real for Ireland's economy and for the European economy. We need to think about managing for those risks. We have not done any particular analysis as to what might happen if one party or another wins the US presidential election. I know that in some countries in Europe some of that analysis has been done but at the moment it is just speculation. It would not be helpful to invest in it. The reality is that the world we are living in today has already fragmented compared to the world we were living in not that long ago. All the signs are that there will be further fragmentation ahead. Ultimately, that is not a good thing for economic growth and development, financial stability and, ultimately, the living standards of communities around the world.