Ms Fran Bennett:

I was going to say that Dr. Brewer ought to answer but I will do so. On the question of whether universal credit has been progressive, I think I am right in saying - Dr. Brewer has written about this - that universal credit is actually more generous than the previous system but while there are many gainers, there are also many losers. The projected cost of universal credit was based on improved take-up but we do not know whether that increased take-up has actually occurred. Therefore, it is quite hard to determine whether that longer term aim of reducing poverty by increasing take-up is going to be borne out. The simplification via universal credit may be discounted for some people by the increase in conditionality and the extension of conditionality which happened at the same time. That deals with the issues of progressivity and poverty. However, we must say that transitional protection is available for those people who are moved by the Government to universal credit, if they would get a lower award under universal credit than they do on their existing legacy benefit or tax credit. We need to acknowledge that is the case but that is then eroded either by changes in the circumstances of the claimant or by inflation eroding the value of transitional protection. It does not last forever but is, as its name suggests, transitional at the point of change if people are moved compulsorily.

On labour force activation, others would know more than I do but as I said in my statement, the national audit office says that it is actually rather difficult to distinguish whether it is universal credit that has caused a change in employment. There were some experiments at the beginning of universal credit which were about people claiming universal credit and getting different levels of conditionality, and whether that affected earnings, but those were done on a specific group of people at a specific stage of universal credit so it may not apply to everyone. I would add that the old tax credit system had hours of work thresholds that claimants had to reach because governments did not want to permanently subsidise precarious and very part-time work. Universal credit is obviously available from the first hour of work and I would argue that the Government has replaced the thresholds of entitlement to tax credits by in-work conditionality in order to achieve the same aim of not subsidising precarious work permanently for people.