Dr. Liam Heaphy:

Future changes in climate will impact all aspects of Irish society, the environment and economy. In Volume 3 we assessed impacts across eight key sectors indicated in the slide. Significant impacts on biodiversity, both on land and in the ocean, are projected with additional warming. Climate change is likely to see an increase in the occurrence and spread of invasive species and competitive pressures faced by Ireland's native species. Climate change will impact all aspects of Irish agriculture and forestry.

With all major cities and many regional towns located close to the coast, Ireland is highly exposed to sea level rise, storm surges and coastal erosion, especially in softer sediment coastal zones. Increases in extremes of floods and droughts are expected. Impacts on water resources, water quality and floods are likely to cascade across other sectors. Ireland’s built environment is exposed to flood risks from rivers, the sea and rainfall extremes.

Ireland depends heavily on critical infrastructure for delivering public services, economic development and a sustainable environment. Critical infrastructure is exposed to a range of climate extremes. Climate change impacts will directly and indirectly affect health and well-being, while vulnerability is likely to increase as Ireland's population ages in the coming decades.

Tourism is highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change and often reliant on sensitive ecosystems. As a small, open economy in an increasingly interconnected world, business and finance in Ireland are exposed and vulnerable to climate change impacts and policy responses in other parts of the world. Transboundary risks can flow through pathways such as trade and finance links which affect critical supply chains. Clear from the assessment of Volume 3 is that impacts of climate change and extreme events can cascade from one sector to another. A siloed sectoral focus on impacts and adaptation raises the prospect of underestimating cascading risks and requires more integrative assessment.

Interlinkages are also important beyond our borders. Ireland, given our shared island status and reliance on imports and exports, is highly exposed to transboundary climate risks. These are the impacts of, and responses to, climate change experienced elsewhere in the world. These remain under assessed. Understanding transmission pathways of transboundary risks is an important knowledge gap. Such understanding is important for assessing impacts, but also adaptation responses. For example, the fodder crisis in 2018 was amplified as typical import markets in nearby countries were also impacted by drought.

Climate system tipping points are assessed by the Volume 1 team and represent thresholds beyond which components of the Earth system permanently switch to new states. Several potential tipping points would have significant implications for Ireland, with collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation being the most immediately important, given the importance of the north Atlantic in determining our climate and agricultural productivity. The risks, impacts and adaptation implications of such events remain to be assessed.