Professor Brian ? Gallach?ir:

I thank Deputy Whitmore. As the Deputy correctly points out and as can be seen from the graph we showed, the trajectory is correct but we are not on track in terms of meeting our carbon budgets. The focus of the report - that part of volume 2 - was achieving climate neutrality by 2050. It was taking a longer-term time horizon and we felt it was important to do that in this report rather than focus on the here and now. In answer to the Deputy's question, the estimate from 2023 is a very early estimate and some parts of the data are clearer than others. We know, for example, in the electricity sector that we reduced emissions by 25% last year, which was a significant reduction that really set us on a positive trajectory whereas in areas such as agriculture, the picture is less clear at the moment. We know there are positive changes in terms of fertiliser use being down and reducing nitrous oxide but in respect of methane emissions, that is less clear.

The EPA is due to produce a set of provisional data for 2023 towards the end of June. What we have shown is a rough estimate. Some of those areas are where we know we are doing well and then we are making crude assumptions on other sectors. It is looking like a 5% reduction of last year's emissions. As the Deputy mentioned, our annual trajectory that was required for the first five years was 4.8%. There was an increase in emissions in 2021 and a decrease in 2022. We are off track at the moment. I can do a quick calculation before the end of the meeting or later and come back to Deputy Whitmore with a more precise answer to her question which is what is now the level of emissions reductions that we would need to achieve in the next period. As I said, our focus in the report was deliberately on taking a longer-term view on this and the big picture changes that we need to make. We are not ignoring the short term but are focusing on climate neutrality by 2050.