Professor Brian Ó Gallachóir:

We have presented some of the reasons we need to achieve deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. I will share some highlights from section C of the Irish Climate Change Assessment Synthesis Report, which, in turn, draws from the Volume 2 report that focuses on how we do this, and especifically how we can deliver a climate neutral Ireland.

The good news is that we have already started. We also have a legal basis for deep sustained national emissions cuts and we have the technical solutions available to us. The bad news is that our emissions are too high, at 50% higher than the EU average on a per capita basis. In addition, we do not have sufficient policies or actions to get us to climate neutrality in the timeframe we need to.

Reflecting on what has happened to date, after significant growth in the 1990s Ireland’s total greenhouse gas emissions peaked in 2001 and have reduced by 15% since then. Ireland has made limited progress over the past 20 years. We have done better in some sectors, for example, electricity and heating, than we have in others, including agriculture and transport. Our emissions per person are 10 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per annum, which is 50% higher than the EU average.

More recently, in 2021 we put in place a legal basis for deep, rapid and sustained greenhouse gas emissions reductions through the climate Act. Ireland legislated for five-yearly carbon budgets and sectoral emissions ceilings that set a limit on the amount of greenhouse gas emissions that can be released over defined periods. These budgets are consistent with a target for a 51% reduction in total greenhouse gas emissions, including the land use, land-use change and forestry, LULUCF, sector by 2030, compared with 2018, and a long-term national climate objective of climate neutrality by 2050 at the latest. However, based on data for 2021 and 2022, early estimates for 2023 and projections to 2030, Ireland is not on track to meet these statutory targets. Current policies and actions are not sufficient.

We know from climate mitigation science that we have well-established no-regret options that need to happen now, which can get us most of the way to net zero carbon dioxide emissions. We do have clearer pathways for the energy transition to net zero emissions than we do for agriculture. As shown in the graphic, these include energy efficiency, renewable energy, electrification and carbon dioxide removal. The transition to a climate-neutral society is an urgent challenge for all sectors but also an opportunity to build a resilient future for all. Among the many additional societal co-benefits are those for human health and air quality.