Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 20 March 2024

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Stability Programme Update: Discussion (Resumed)

Dr. Robert Kelly:

In terms of inflation, the Deputy's point is very well made. It is about the real level of investment that can be put in. We often talk about these in nominal terms. When we look forward, if we look at our inflation forecast, we do very much see it returning to that trend of 2%, which people might think is quite normal and planned. The real challenge is that we have seen a level shift in pricing that we do not expect to dissipate fully. We expect more modest growth rather than a downward curve. Therefore, some of what we are seeing is maybe some of the more acute price increases we saw due to supply constraints. We might look at energy or even some of the construction materials, for example. Some of those were real supply chain bottlenecks and when they are unwound, we might see faults, but we do not generally expect it across the economy. Therefore, it is very important to account for how much less real investment we get in terms of volume for that effect that came. That is part of some of the analysis we have seen done by the Department of Finance as we look out at what that cap will be.