Eoin Ó Broin (Dublin Mid West, Sinn Fein)
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This section deals with the national planning framework and the related subsequent sections deal with the review. In yesterday’s response to the decision to defer the publication of the draft revised national planning framework, with which I have no issue whatsoever, the Minister of State, Deputy Noonan, outlined that new statistical information was awaited from the final report of the ESRI. The previous report spoke about population growth being the result of what it called head room, that being, new household formation within the existing population, and inward migration, including Irish people returning home, people coming to Ireland to work, etc. What is not in this section of the Bill in terms of the NPF and its review is consideration of what is called pent-up demand or existing demand separate to head room and inward migration.

Following general commentary and the Minister of State’s response yesterday, I am concerned that the ESRI report that is currently being produced is not examining the issue of pent-up demand. The terms of reference were set by the Government, not the ESRI, so this is not a criticism of the ESRI. For the previous ESRI report on this issue in 2019, the Government’s terms of reference did not include pent-up demand. Consequently, the average figure of 33,000 new homes per year did not take into account existing demand, only new demand year on year. If consideration of pent-up demand is not explicitly required in the legislation, particularly in subsections (1) and (2) here, it means that the NPF review, whatever we think about it, will be based on the same flawed chronic underestimation of housing need. This will have an impact. One of the elements that flows from the national planning framework is the Government’s housing plan and housing targets. If we do not have pent-up demand bolted into section 19, it will not be in the terms of reference of the ESRI report, will not inform the NPF review under sections 20 and 21 and will not inform an accurate revision of the targets underpinning the housing plan.

Where is pent-up demand considered and why is it not mentioned in this section of the Bill? Why does it seem to be excluded from the terms of reference of the current ESRI report, which will underpin the NPF review, which is relevant to sections 20 and 21?