Mr. Killian Carroll:

In the paper, we looked at three distinct costs - the compliance cost, the transition cost and the physical cost. If we do not meet our targets those are the compliance costs. We could end up with that €3.5 billion cumulative figure out to 2030 Professor McMahon mentioned in his opening statement. I hope we will meet our targets which means we will not have those compliance costs and instead we will have transition costs. On the revenue side out to 2030, we would see a fall in revenue of about €2.5 billion. That is mostly through the switch from petrol and diesel vehicles to battery electrical cars. That is only a fall in revenue on the public purse. It would not replace the net revenue. It would not necessarily mean an increase in the tax burden for households. As Mr. Conroy mentioned, there are many areas in which we could raise revenue which might also help meet the targets, such as the congestion charges or taxing by road use.

On the expenditure side, we found that the largest cost on the public purse would be on retrofitting residential buildings. That would account for the majority of the cost. It would be about 50% of the cost to the State. Cumulatively by 2030 if we are to meet our targets, it would be about €11 billion for the State.

Regarding physical costs, in the past we have seen costs of around €200 million per year for these once-in-ten-year events. Over time what had been regarded as once-in-100-year events might occur annually. The frequency of these events will increase and not only that, but the costs will also increase. Earlier Professor McMahon mentioned the cost of flooding in Dublin city. For a medium-range scenario, if the sea level rose by about 0.5 m, costs would rise from €25 million today to €330 million. If it rose by 1 m, costs in Dublin city alone could rise to about €3 billion. These physical costs could potentially get really large if we do not transition towards net zero fairly quickly.