Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 31 January 2024

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Report on National Development Plan: Economic and Social Research Institute

Dr. Kieran McQuinn:

On the overall point made about running behind profile, that may be providing evidence of what we are worried about, namely, that constraints within the economy are preventing the allocation of the full spend. Again, that goes back to what we are saying about there being a potential issue of resource constraints inhibiting the spend.

On the targets relating to housing, our colleagues Dr. Adele Bergin and Mr. Ablán García-Rodríguez brought out the structural demand estimates for housing a few years ago. It is important to note that those are the estimates of the increase in demand in a given year due to demographic factors. These are sometimes mistaken for targets. In other words, someone might say that, for example, we need 30,000 houses in order to meet demand. Of course, the fact is we have not met those targets or levels for quite some years. There is a pent-up demand associated with these figures and, as a result, we need to build more houses than that. The structural demand estimates are being revised as we speak and are due to be published in April. It is no surprise to anyone that, in light of the way the demographics have gone since the last estimates were produced and the advent of the war in the Ukraine, which has given rise to a large increase in the number of people coming here, those targets are set to be revised upwards. At this point, we do not have the numbers because they not been finalised.