Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 5 December 2023

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Foreign Affairs and Trade, and Defence

Update on Ukraine: Discussion

H.E. Ms Larysa Gerasko:

I thank the Chair and the committee for the opportunity to be here to brief the Joint Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defence on the latest developments and situation in Ukraine, including the ongoing war and our visible challenges for the future. Before turning to my remarks, on behalf of the people of Ukraine, I extend words of appreciation for the support from Ireland, which we are receiving at this unprecedentedly challenging time for our country.

Today is the 650th day of Russia’s full-scale invasion of my country, a major escalation of the Russian war against Ukraine which began in 2014. It resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and immense devastation. The displacement crisis it caused is becoming increasingly protracted. More than 11 million Ukrainians remain displaced, including 5 million within Ukraine and a further 6.2 million - more than the entire population of Ireland - have been seeking safety abroad. This includes more than 100,000 who were granted temporary protection in Ireland. We really appreciate that. Severe and intense military operations take place on the front line, in particular the defence actions in the east, as well as offensive operations in the south of our country. On the ground, Ukraine’s advance is seriously complicated by Russia’s intensive mine-laying and multilayered defence extending up to 40 km in depth as well as Russian dominance in the sky. Despite all challenges, Ukrainian troops are gaining success in a number of front-line areas. The Armed Forces of Ukraine took control of several bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro river in the Kherson region and achieved success in the battle for the Black Sea. The occupier's fleet can no longer operate in the western part of the Black Sea and is forced to redeploy warships from temporarily occupied Crimea.

Despite a number of devastating defeats and growing losses in numbers killed, Russia demonstrates readiness for a protracted war of attrition, hoping to win with the use of its still considerable resources, war fatigue and nuclear blackmail. In revenge for its military losses on the ground, Russia continues terrorising Ukrainian civilians by attacking critical infrastructure and residential areas with missiles, MLRS, guided aerial bombs and attack drones, resulting in significant casualties and destruction. The targets of enemy attacks are mainly port infrastructure, grain warehouses, airfield network and civilian buildings, which can be considered as nothing else but violation of the laws and customs of war. The Russian occupiers continue attacking Ukraine daily with Iranian-made attack drones. Almost 3,000 UAVs were used against us in the war of terror, with almost 300 drones in October. It increases production of attack drones and accumulates them for winter attacks. Russia showed its true cynical and genocidal nature when, on 25 November, it launched its largest drone attack on Kyiv - 75 drones - on the day of commemoration of the victims of Holodomor, the great famine of 1932-33 in Ukraine. That day Kyiv was filled with international leaders and representatives of foreign states, including An Cathaoirleach, Senator Buttimer.

There are no safe places in Ukraine. Russia continues terrorising Ukrainian civilians every day and night. It shells kindergartens, schools and hospitals and destroys critical infrastructure and residential areas, resulting in significant casualties all over the country. The geography of the airborne attacks stretches from the west to east and the north to south of Ukraine. People in Ukraine live under the constant threat of death. Children study in bomb shelters. People spend nights in subways and bomb shelters because of missile attacks.

No one knows if they are to wake up in a bed in the morning or lying under the rubble of their house.

One of our biggest concerns is our children. As Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters a second year, the war continues to take a devastating toll on the lives of millions of Ukrainian children. Right now, over 7 million children in the country are in grave danger of physical and emotional harm, and displacement. Bombing and shelling have damaged key infrastructure, leaving many children without access to the most basic goods and services, thereby depriving them of the enjoyment of their human rights, including those relating to education, water, health, food and even their right to life. Some 3,510 children have been killed, according to official data. More than 1,000 have been wounded, more than 2,000 have gone missing and almost 20,000 children have been deported. These numbers do not take into account the temporarily occupied areas. Russia continues its deliberate policy of forcible transfers and deportations of vulnerable Ukrainian children within temporarily occupied territories and across the border with the Russian Federation. It also places them into the camps for political indoctrination, military training and illegal adoption.

In Russia, Ukrainian children have their names changed and are illegally adopted. Two children from Ukraine were adopted recently by the family of the faction head of the Russian state Duma, Sergey Mironov. These actions fall under the definition of genocide, according to the 1948 genocide convention, and constitute a grave violation of the fourth Geneva Convention and the Convention on the Rights of the Child. The widespread and systematic violation of the human rights of children in the context of the war against Ukraine, as well as related violations of international humanitarian law, must be stopped and those responsible held to account. The victims, including Ukraine’s children, must have access to remedy and redress. To address this problem, the Bring Kids Back UA platform was initiated by the President of Ukraine. The strategic action plan unites the efforts of the Ukrainian Government, partner countries, international organisations and civil society to trace, identify, repatriate and care for all Ukrainian children illegally deported by Russia. Besides the obvious goal of reuniting Ukrainian families and giving those children back their lives, the programme also aims to provide the International Criminal Court with the facts and proven information they need to prosecute the criminals responsible for these illegal deportations. For this purpose, Canada has proposed the creation of an international coalition of countries to help to return Ukrainian children abducted by Russia. This initiative will continue the Bring Kids Back UA action plan. The first meeting of the international coalition of countries for the return of Ukrainian children is to be held in Kyiv on 8 December.

Another huge threat to the world is Russia’s nuclear blackmail. Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant still remains under Russian control. On 25 October, Russia most probably tried to target Ukraine's Khmelnytsky nuclear power plant with drones. Luckily, it failed but it brought damage to the plant's infrastructure, temporarily cutting power to some off-site radiation monitoring stations. There are more details and information in my written statement. Russia is the only state in the world that has fired at the premises of a nuclear power plant. No one else made the nuclear plant a test site for storing weapons and shells. Russia is covering itself with a nuclear plant to shell our cities with jet artillery. If anyone in the world is still able to ignore Russia's other war crimes, such a crime against humanity must certainly motivate everyone to action. The aggressor state, Russia, must be ousted from the international nuclear energy market. Sanctions on Rosatom, the personal ones at first and those on Russian nuclear fuel and technologies thereafter, must be imposed.

The Russian military and state authorities are well known for having committed many deliberate attacks against civilian targets, massacres of civilians, the torture and rape of women and children, and the torture of Ukrainian prisoners of war. Russia is today using prohibited tactics of war by weaponising food. As the committee is aware, Russia withdrew from the Black Sea grain initiative in July and started attacking Ukrainian ports storing grain intended for export. This initiative plays a vital role in stabilising global food markets, ensuring food supplies to vulnerable populations and promoting humanitarian assistance efforts. We know that the lives of about 400 million people around the world depend on Ukrainian food exports. That is why, even in these difficult times, Ukraine remains a guarantor of global food security. The international community understands the importance of a consistent food supply to those in need. Thirty-four countries, including Ireland, joined the Grain from Ukraine programme launched by our country. Never again should hunger become a weapon against the freedom of people. Anyone who tries to use hunger in such a way, anyone whose terror creates chaos in the food market, must be held accountable before the entire world. Russia must be held accountable.

Last winter, the Kremlin's drones and missiles zeroed in on Ukraine's power grid, hoping to erode the country's will to resist Russia's invasion by denying civilians heating. Such attacks on the objects of civilian infrastructure are a clear weaponisation of the cold season by Russia and an attempt to increase casualties among the civilian population of Ukraine. Russia is now getting ready for a new wave of terror against Ukraine's energy sector ahead of the winter season. We appreciate all the assistance provided by countries around the globe last winter. However, people in Ukraine are still in mortal danger of freezing to death this winter if we do not have enough components to fix the damage to the energy system.

I have just mentioned Ukraine's energy system, which is a target for Russia. However, it is only a fraction of the immense amount of destruction that Russia brought to Ukraine. The devastation caused by Russia to Ukraine is currently estimated at $411 billion. In 2023, Ukraine's rapid recovery needs remain at up to $15 billion. Its priorities include rebuilding infrastructure, housing, transportation, economic development of communities, job creation and business opportunities in the liberated areas.

The UN, in co-operation with the Government of Ukraine, the World Bank and the EU, has initiated a third rapid assessment of Ukraine's damage and needs, which will determine investment priorities for recovery and reconstruction for the year ahead. We count on Ireland to be on board and provide assistance in Ukraine’s recovery.

All the Russian assets that are blocked today, which amount to almost $500 billion, should be the priority for the restoration of Ukraine and compensation for the damage. Belgium has become the first country to launch the practice of using frozen Russian assets for security assistance to our country and for fast recovery projects. We strongly believe that Ireland can employ the Belgian practice and put the €1.8 billion of Russian assets frozen in Ireland towards the financial assistance to Ukraine. When we talk about recovery, we are talking about millions of jobs, billions in company profits and trillions in GDP, not only for Ukraine but for all European countries. This will also be crucial in providing the basis for all Ukrainians who were forced to leave Ukraine to come back home.

Let me bring to the committee's attention the importance of sanctions against Russia. Despite the efforts of the international community, the Russian state still manages to acquire technologies and equipment through a network of suppliers and circumvent the international sanctions regime. The analysis of independent investigations shows that the circumvention of the export sanctions on Russia amounted to an astonishing €8 billion in 2022. Just imagine that. Western businesses use third countries to sell their products to Russia. In addition, there is still no ban on Russian liquefied gas that comes to Europe. More joint work is needed to combat any forms and schemes by which Russia is avoiding sanctions or earns on selling its natural resources. Any money and supplies to Russia that allow it to increase military production must be stopped. This is in the clear interest not only of Ukraine but also everyone in the world who wants to see a speedy end to this barbaric war. That is why we expect decisive steps towards this aim in the 12th EU package of sanctions.

Dear members of the committee, almost everything becomes a weapon in Russian hands, and information is not an exception. Russia uses propaganda, disinformation, and misinformation to justify its deeds. Russia has become a global champion in the craft of spreading lies and creating deep fakes, which reach the minds of ordinary people not only inside one country, but across Europe and the world. That is something that definitely has to be dealt with and we strongly believe that we have to do it together.

As we all see, dear members of the committee, the Russian meaning of peace is completely opposite to a peace as the civilised world sees it. What we propose is Ukraine’s peace formula that, to our strongest belief, remains the only realistic and comprehensive plan to restore Ukraine's territorial integrity and to guarantee security and justice for the entire international community. Its ten points were reflected in the UN General Assembly resolution in February of this year, which was adopted by 141 votes, or a majority of countries. The peace formula is gradually gaining the support of the world. It is universal in its nature and can create a basis not only to end Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine but also other armed conflicts on the planet and overcome global problems. We are grateful to Ireland for joining the process for the implementation of the peace formula, in particular three out of ten of its points. They are radiation and nuclear safety, food security and restoration of justice. We are also grateful to Ireland for supporting us on the track of restoration of justice in particular, by participating in the core group of countries on the establishment of the special tribunal on the crime of aggression, which is to fill the jurisdictional gap of the International Criminal Court.

Although the war for our existence is the priority for us, we also put as much efforts in fulfilling our European integration aspirations. We would like to thank Ireland for its unwavering support for Ukraine’s path to full membership of the EU. Ukrainians have been committed to their European integration course for ten years since the 2014 Revolution of Dignity, followed by the Russian occupation of parts of Ukrainian territories. During all these years, eight of the low-intensity war and almost two of the full-scale invasion, Ukrainian political elites and society have been modernising and transforming the country, gradually aligning its legislation with European norms and standards. Ukraine has been demonstrating not only resilience but a capacity to prepare the country for EU membership.

All of this has been taking place under Russia’s continuing missile and drone attacks and bloody battles on the front line. No candidate country has ever had such an experience, and we wish no one would ever have. At the same time, Ukraine believes that the decision to start EU accession negotiations should be merit-based. Ukraine is not asking for political concessions. We have created a strong basis for the EU’s positive decision to open accession negotiations. We clearly understand that we are only at the beginning of the path to full-fledged EU membership and are committed to further transformation.

In 2023, the Ukrainian Government conducted self-screening for the adaptation of national legislation to EU law to effectively go through the official screening. To meet all the criteria defined by the EU, Ukraine is already elaborating on a detailed plan for the implementation of all the European Commission’s recommendations for 2024. Given Ukraine’s significant progress in the implementation of the European Commission's seven recommendations in just 16 months, which was recognised by the European Commission enlargement package on 8 November 2023, we expect the European Council to make a political decision to start accession negotiations with Ukraine at its meeting on 14 and 15 December.

We are grateful to Ireland for supporting the enlargement policy and Ukraine’s joining the EU. We must admit that what Russia does in Ukraine is not just a Ukrainian problem. This is a challenge

for everyone. As Ukraine fights for democracy, freedom and European values the world must be united to stop Russian aggression as soon as possible and minimise its destructive consequences. What Ukraine needs is to receive credible security guarantees. Putin’s disregard for all international agreements makes it impossible for Kyiv to rely on documents such as the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, which turned out to be worthless. Due to this memorandum, Ukraine gave Russia its second biggest nuclear arsenal which is being used against us.

Ukraine started negotiations with the US, the UK, Canada, Japan, France, the Netherlands and Germany and has agreed to start working with Sweden and Norway on bilateral documents on security guarantees. The world has to unite and join its efforts in helping Ukraine to defeat the Russian army.

In conclusion, I stress that we must ensure that in the future there will be no war anywhere in Europe or the world. No other city in Europe should live through what all the cities and villages of Ukraine are experiencing. We must be united and work to full capacity so that only Russia’s ambitions are ruined, and not our country's and our cities. We must make it possible and we will do it. We must win.