Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Thursday, 16 November 2023
Public Accounts Committee
Appropriation Accounts 2022
Vote 11 - Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform
Vote 12 - Superannuation and Retired Allowances
Vote 39 - Office of Government Procurement
Vote 43 - Office of the Government Chief Information Officer
2022 Report of the Comptroller and Auditor General
Chapter 5: Vote Accounting and Budget Management
9:30 am
Mr. Kevin Meaney:
Regarding the metro, there is a technique called “reference class forecasting”. Essentially, it involved benchmarking against other metros that had been built across the world. The exercise removed any unique features of those systems and tried to keep them as close as possible to an Irish-style plan. The model arrived at a central point estimate, which was between €9 billion and €9.5 billion. The range is provided as a probability based on what happened with some metros that were built in other countries. When we speak of €23 billion, we are speaking about the very worst-performing metro systems. However, the average and mean are closer to-----