Dr. Tom McDonnell:

As Mr. McGeady stated, it is about timing. Obviously, the once-off measures are real and will impact on incomes in 2024 and late 2023. If those once-off measures were permanent, it would be a progressive budget. They are not permanent, however.

Prices will again be higher in 2025 so people will be even further behind if their incomes do not increase. All that will be left then will be the non-once-off measures. Once the tide goes out on those measures, people will be even further behind in many cases. The concern, therefore, is that deprivation rates are not necessarily going to come down. I believe they will go up slightly in 2023 but hopefully that will be reversed in 2024. We believe that real incomes will increase in 2024. In the short term, the budget is progressive, but in the medium term it is regressive. It is the medium term which matters in the long run. That is the perspective I would take.