Dr. Karina Doorley:

The short answer is “No”. I do not think anyone at the ESRI has looked at how the current allocation will affect services next year. However we, as well as many other commentators, would share concerns that the budget might not be enough. I know the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council would echo what the Deputy just said, that the standstill budget alone may have been just about met but there does not seem to be any provision for our ageing population and long waiting lists. Those do not seem to have been budgeted for, which means that what the health budget will actually look like next year is unpredictable. Our health team at the ESRI has done much work on forecasting demand for healthcare services over the next few years. It has a model that is forward looking. Basically every projection that comes out of the model shows that demand will exceed supply in the years to come because of the ageing population and the fact we are living longer with a better quality of life, but the services will be required to cover that. It is a concern but there has not been any concrete work on what this actually means for services next year.