Mr. Fergal O'Brien:

I thank Deputy Feighan. I might give an initial reaction to a couple of these. Mr. D'Arcy might like to talk about energy and the trade issue and I might respond to some of the other questions.

The Deputy asked about the modelling exercise and the shocks that we mentioned. This is the normal structure of a macroeconomic model. Be it an energy price shock, an interest rate shock or the impact of a global economic development such as a recession in China, one would be able to model it on various structures in one’s local economy, for example, the Northern Ireland economy or the all-island economy. The impact of those shocks and developments would be different in Northern Ireland than in the wider UK economy. Having a regional model and an all-island model for whatever shocks we face in future will make a significant contribution. We are not specifying what those shocks would be, but the economists are always expecting the next one. Inevitably, it will not be too far away.

I will say a few words about infrastructure and make a particular request of the committee. We feel strongly that there is an opportunity now for a national infrastructure fund. The surge of revenues in the State from corporate tax should not be put into day-to-day spending and should instead be put into a national infrastructure fund. Consideration could be given to how this could, in the medium term, support shared island funding in various ways. As was pointed out, the priority would be to ensure certainty of funding and that it not be subject to some of those future shocks. As we know from the past, infrastructure spending is always the first thing to be cut. Ensuring certainty is the real purpose of a ring-fenced fund.

Turning to our particular request, when the national development plan and the national planning framework were devised, insufficient consideration was given to the all-island economy. Given that a review of the national planning framework is now under way, we believe that the committee should take a particular interest in advocating for the all-island aspects. The Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage is leading the review and work has started, with a consultation process to be held over the coming months. This is an important opportunity to redress the fact that insufficient consideration was given in the original framework to the North-South and all-island aspects.

Before I hand over to Mr. D’Arcy to discuss energy and trade issues, I will address the questions on the specific steps we can take as regards the all-island labour market. One step the Irish Government could take would be to reinstate the temporary measures that obtained during Covid. This would give significant relief to companies that are struggling with the complexities of cross-Border work. Ultimately, though, it will be for His Majesty’s Revenue & Customs, HMRC, with Ireland’s Revenue, to agree a bilateral agreement on supporting increased labour mobility on the island of Ireland. There may be wider international issues. For example, there may need to be engagement with the OECD, which is examining the new world of work, tech nomads and so forth. It is very much a changed world of work, but we believe that Revenue and HMRC could advance this issue if there were the political will to do so.